Trump vs. the world: why duties have become a new tool of US foreign policy
10 April 17:29
OPINION
U.S. President Donald Trump continues to build international policy on the model of business deals. His latest decision to suspend new duties for 90 days was another confirmation of his typical tactics – to put pressure, create deadlines and achieve concessions on his own terms.
Political analyst Oleg Lisnyi in an exclusive commentary [Kommersant] told why Trump’s foreign policy actions resemble business negotiations, what is the risk for US partners, and why China is an exception to the rule. The expert also explained how such approaches can be linked to financial interests and the reaction of American markets.
“My very subjective opinion is that he uses only his business experience in communicating with the world,” says Lisnyi.
In his opinion, this experience is far from flawless, given Trump’s repeated bankruptcies, but it is the experience that the president considers effective. The expert describes the mechanism used by Trump as multi-stage and aggressive.
“First, raise the rates as high as possible, then make some new deadlines… and then reach some middle ground and demonstrate success. This approach allows you to create the illusion of progress even where achievements are questionable,” says Lisnyi.
Tactical game with deadlines: the experience of Mexico and Canada
Delaying duties is only part of a broader strategy. According to Lisnyi, Trump actively used a similar model in his negotiations with Mexico and Canada.
“He (Donald Trump – ed.) constantly gave these countries a nightmare with these deadlines, pardon the expression.”
According to the political scientist, this method is effective in the short term, when the main goal is to force concessions.
Read also: Trump’s new duties: what Ukrainians who send goods to the US by Ukrposhta need to know
Selectivity of approaches: China is a separate issue
However, as the expert notes, in the case of China, Trump demonstrates a different level of restraint. In contrast to putting pressure on smaller states, he uses a more diplomatic style in relations with Beijing:
“He has a different approach to China. He respects the Chinese leader, says that he has to think and go to a meeting,” the political scientist says.
This indicates an understanding of the real limits of influence – Trump avoids outright conflict with the leaders of key global players.
Read also: Trump has raised the stakes: The US imposes 125% duties against China
Reward for compromise: the policy of “carrots and sticks”
According to Lisnyi, Trump has a clear system of signals for world leaders: obedience is rewarded, intransigence is punished:
“Those who have made concessions and are already communicating will receive some bonuses… If you kiss the king in one place, as he said, you have a certain relief,” the expert explains.
In his opinion, this approach, despite its rudeness, can be effective at the tactical level, but does not guarantee stability in the strategic perspective.
Trump’s actions, according to the expert, are an example of a policy where the main tool is psychological pressure and control over the pace of the process. Creating artificial deadlines, manipulating expectations, and selective harshness are all components of the Trump method.
“He is not at the age to give up the tools that he believes are effective,” Lisnyi summarizes.
In his opinion, the international community is dealing with a leader who sets his own rules of the game and uses the foreign policy arena as a platform for implementing proven business moves.
Trump’s trade policy: aggressive style, internal pressure and the shadow of insider schemes
Donald Trump’s decision to temporarily suspend new duties for most countries except China has sparked a wave of discussion not only in business circles but also among political analysts. Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko, who spoke to journalists [Kommersant]believes that this tactic is typical for the current US president and indicates a combination of several strategic motives. Trump acts in his own style: first pressure, then compromise
“This is not the abolition of duties, this is a pause. For 90 days. And this pause is a reduction, not elimination of tariffs. Up to 10%,” explains Fesenko.
In his opinion, such a policy is fully consistent with the “Trumpian style of negotiations,” when an ultimatum is first announced, and then a readiness for dialogue is demonstrated, but only on its own terms. This approach is not new to US foreign policy.
“First, put pressure, frighten, conduct an aggressive information attack, and force negotiations. But on your own terms. Trump himself boasted of the results, in particular, the fact that 75 countries have already agreed to negotiate,” the expert summarizes.
Stock market as a deterrent
Volodymyr Fesenko emphasizes that not only negotiating pressure, but also domestic consequences could have played a key role in the situation with the change in tariff policy. The collapse of the US stock market that accompanied the announcement of the new duties was a serious blow not only to investors but also to the president’s inner circle.
“The stock market crash hit millions of Americans, his allies and partners, including Elon Musk. And according to various estimates, it cost Trump himself up to half a billion dollars,” the political scientist recalls.
He is convinced that this also influenced the decision to change the tone – without openly admitting the mistake, but rolling back the most radical steps.
“We needed positive news. But to completely cancel the tariffs would be an admission of weakness,” Fesenko believes.
Suspicions of insider manipulation: the third version
Among the additional motives is another, more resonant version. According to the expert, accusations of the possible use of insider information for personal gain have already been made in the public space.
“Democratic Senator Adam Schiff actually accused Trump of manipulating the stock market. Selling shares at the peak before the announcement of the duties, buying after the fall, and making money again on the growth,” explains Fesenko.
In the United States, the use of insider information is a criminal offense. And although it is difficult to prove such actions, especially when the president controls both Congress and the Department of Justice, the very fact of public accusations can have political consequences.
The expert adds that the actions of US President Donald Trump are a typical example of a hybrid strategy, where political pressure, domestic economic resonance, and personal risks are combined in one scenario. Fesenko believes that the situation is a vivid example of how even public policy can look like a financial thriller in the hands of an unpredictable leader.
“The most logical explanation is a combination of the desire to exert pressure with the realization of catastrophic consequences. And even if this is not a direct admission of a mistake, it shows that the US president is forced to reckon with reality,” the expert concludes.
donald Trump’s “customs wars”: what you need to know about them
In early 2025, US President Donald Trump launched a new phase of his trade policy by imposing significant duties on imports from major partners, including Canada, Mexico, and especially China. His stated goal was to reduce the trade imbalance, strengthen American manufacturing, and protect national security. Tariffs of 10% were imposed on most imported goods, while some, such as those from China, were subject to tariffs of 125%.
These steps led to retaliatory actions by other countries, which escalated into what many are calling a full-blown trade war. As a result, both national and global economies have suffered. In the United States, businesses and consumers have faced rising costs, raising concerns about inflation and even stagflation. Overseas, key export-oriented economies such as Vietnam and Cambodia have experienced disruptions due to changing supply chains.
Financial markets reacted with volatility. A temporary 90-day suspension of some tariffs created a short-term boost, but uncertainty remained. Trump’s strategy, according to political analysts, resembles a business tactic: raise the stakes, exert pressure, and then negotiate on favorable terms. His “pause” on tariffs is seen as a calculated compromise – a temporary reduction of tariffs to 10% while maintaining negotiating leverage.
Critics argue that this approach has created an unnecessary burden on the global economy. Analysts such as Howard Marks warn that such a policy could undermine the US creditworthiness and increase the national debt.
As of April 2025, the tariffs are still largely in place, with only selective adjustments. The broader implications for global trade and economic stability remain uncertain as the international community watches the negotiations and retaliatory measures.
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