Shopping centers come to life and offices are empty: how the real estate market has changed in 2025
25 June 20:45
The real estate market revived in 2025: retail space is growing, offices are looking for tenants. This is stated in the Financial Stability Report (June 2025) published by the National Bank of Ukraine, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
In the first quarter of 2025, the situation on the commercial real estate market in Ukraine demonstrates contrasting dynamics. The retail real estate segment is actively recovering, while office space remains less popular. At the same time, the warehousing and logistics sector remains in high demand, especially from e-commerce.
Retail real estate: demand is growing along with income
According to CBRE Ukraine, the retail real estate market in Kyiv is showing positive dynamics. Consumer activity is growing, and accordingly, the attendance of shopping and entertainment centers (SECs) is increasing. This has a direct impact on the financial performance of retail space owners: their income, linked to turnover, is growing along with tenants’ sales.
In response to high demand, landlords are gradually increasing the fixed part of rents, which indicates a recovery in retail solvency. There is also a decrease in the vacancy rate in prime shopping centers. In Kyiv, this indicator decreased by 3 percentage points in the first quarter of 2025 and currently stands at 14%. Despite the war, new offline stores continue to open, not only of international brands but also of Ukrainian producers.
At the same time, experts note that the success of individual facilities is uneven. Some shopping centers in the capital continue to have a high share of vacant space. The reason is not the general state of the market, but poorly built business models and an outdated management concept. It is worth noting that in 2025, developers are practically not planning new projects in the retail real estate sector, which is associated with both wartime risks and high investment costs.
Offices: low rates and high competition
Unlike the retail market, the office property market remains sluggish. Although vacancy rates have declined slightly over the past year, primarily in Class A business centers, the overall situation remains challenging. Demand for offices is consistently low, and rental rates have been significantly reduced.
This situation creates conditions for a “migration” of companies: tenants are moving from less comfortable offices to higher-quality premises that have already been renovated. Thus, it is becoming increasingly difficult for owners of less attractive properties to retain clients, as rents are often offered at almost cost, only to cover utility bills.
New office projects are hardly ever implemented. Only those facilities that were built before the full-scale invasion and remained unfinished appear on the market. According to market participants, developers are in no hurry to launch new construction due to low returns and uncertainty of demand in the medium term.
Read also: Land boom: why Ukrainians buy land rather than real estate
Warehouses: demand is holding up, rates have stabilized
The logistics real estate segment remains the most stable. Demand for warehouse space remains high, primarily from e-commerce and retail companies. This is due to the further development of online commerce, which requires fast and affordable storage of goods near large agglomerations.
As a result, vacancy rates in warehouses remain low, and rental rates have stabilized after a period of growth in 2023-2024. This creates a predictable environment for both landlords and businesses that need long-term planning of logistics processes.
The NBU emphasizes that the commercial real estate market in Ukraine in 2025 will demonstrate multi-vector development. Retail space is being actively restored and generating profits, warehouse infrastructure is stable, and offices remain a challenge for developers. In the near term, the consumer-oriented segments are expected to further strengthen their positions, while office real estate will require fundamental changes in formats and approaches to tenant management.
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