Russian central bank predicts financial collapse if war does not end in summer
18 March 15:52
Russia is rapidly approaching the economic limit beyond which chaos and disintegration are likely. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation is already predicting the end of the war by the summer of 2025, as its further continuation could lead to catastrophic consequences. Sanctions, budget deficits, the falling ruble and the exhaustion of reserves are forcing the Kremlin to look for a way out. Will the war stop under the pressure of the crisis, or will the regime choose the path of ultimate self-destruction – more in "Komersant Ukrainian"?
The Central Bank of Russia is already preparing to end the so-called “special military operation” (SMO) no later than June 2025. This forecast was made by several sources in the Central Bank, citing three key factors that could force the Kremlin to end hostilities. This was reported by the Kremlin Snuffbox Telegram channel.
The threat of economic collapse
According to one of the sources close to the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiullina, if the war is not ended in the coming months, the country may face a large-scale economic crisis.
“We have repeatedly warned about this scenario. If the war does not end by summer, the situation will become critical,” the source emphasized.
He did not elaborate on the details of a possible collapse, but he did identify the key risks:
- A sharp drop in the ruble and the inability to stabilize it under sanctions;
- Rising food prices and shortages of certain goods;
- Problems with the export of energy resources, which are the basis of Russian budget revenues.
It is known that against the backdrop of a sharp drop in Russian oil prices, a growing budget deficit and the rapid depletion of the National Welfare Fund, the Russian government is forced to resort to the last available reserves – ruble savings accumulated in bank accounts. According to the Federal Treasury, the funds kept by the Ministry of Finance on deposits with credit organizations and under repurchase agreements began to decline rapidly in early 2025. In just two and a half months, by mid-March, this reserve had almost halved.
The threat of unprecedented US sanctions
Another factor that is forcing the Russian leadership to revise its military strategy is the risk of a new wave of sanctions from the West.
“The Americans may impose such sanctions that are even scary to talk about,” said a source in the Central Bank.
It is likely that we are talking about a complete disconnection of Russia from international financial systems, blocking the export of critical technologies and sanctions that could paralyze the work of Russian state-owned corporations, writes “Kremlin Snuffbox”
It should be added that the administration of US President Donald Trump has already taken some steps. In particular, it did not extend the general license, which allowed financial transactions with Russian banks to pay for energy. In other words, the United States closed the sanctions loophole for the Kremlin. The refusal to extend the license means that from now on, any financial transactions with Russian banks related to energy payments will be subject to US sanctions. This will make it more difficult for other countries and companies to buy Russian oil and gas, as they risk falling under secondary sanctions.
Time is running out: economists predict a critical year for Russia
Russia will continue the war, despite economic difficulties and social problems within the country. This was stated by Doctor of Economics Igor Lipsitz in an interview with the YouTube channel “News Factory”.
According to him, the Russian authorities are ready to fight to the last, even if citizens are left without basic living conditions:
“Russia will fight to the end. People will die of hunger around them, but the authorities do not care. Recently, I received a call from a suburb of St. Petersburg where hundreds of people live without heating, water and sewage in cold weather. There is no money for repairs, but they find resources for the war,” Ihor Lipsits
Lipsitz also compared the current situation to the collapse of the USSR, when military spending led to the country’s collapse:
“The Soviet Union had enormous military resources, an army, and weapons stockpiles. But the civilian economy collapsed, the system rotted from the inside. Now Russia is in a large-scale war that is rapidly depleting its resources. The economy is bursting at the seams, and it is no longer possible to hide it,” Igor Lipsitz
According to the economist, 2025 will be a critical year for Russia.
“Economists in Russia itself recognize that either the Kremlin will stop the war or the country will begin to collapse in such a way that it will be impossible to stop this process,” Igor Lipsitz
Thus, economic exhaustion and social crisis may become factors that will eventually force the Russian authorities to change their aggressive policy.
A knife in the back from China
Moreover, Chinese oil giants are refusing to buy Russian oil because of US sanctions.
In March, China’s state-owned oil companies significantly reduced or completely stopped purchasing Russian oil due to new sanctions imposed by the United States. This is reported by Reuters.
China’s largest oil company Sinopec and Zhenhua Oil have completely stopped importing oil from Russia. At the same time, PetroChina and CNOOC continued purchases, but significantly reduced shipments in March.
A source at Sinopec said that the company temporarily suspended purchases due to additional checks on compliance with sanctions requirements. In addition, the management expects a “clear picture” of the future Russian-American agreement to end the war in Ukraine.
“If the negotiations lead to the easing or lifting of US sanctions on Russian oil, supplies may be resumed,” the anonymous source said.
As a reminder, the US Treasury Department has decided not to renew the 8L general license issued by the previous administration. This license allowed foreign companies to make payments for Russian energy resources through sanctioned Russian banks. From now on, such transactions are at risk of being blocked, forcing international players to reconsider their cooperation with the Russian fuel sector.
Repressions against radical “hawks“
According to the Kremlin snuffbox, the authorities are discussing the possibility of “mopping up” radical patriots who demand the continuation of the war until complete victory.
“I have heard that the Kremlin is preparing reprisals against the ‘hawks’ – those who advocate prolonging the fighting. I do not rule out that I will be purged as well,” said one of the interlocutors, previously associated with the Kremlin.
This information confirms previous rumors about a split in the Russian elites: some demand an end to the war, while others insist on continuing it at any cost.
The events of recent months indicate that Russia is facing a choice: continue the war, risking economic collapse, or stop, saving the remnants of the state system. Western pressure, China’s refusal to buy Russian oil, and an internal split in the ruling circles are bringing the moment of truth closer for the Kremlin. Will 2025 be a turning point for Russia, or will the country finally plunge into the economic and political abyss? The answer to this question will determine the future not only of Russia, but of the entire world.
