Russian oil price falls below $50 per barrel for the first time since spring
17 October 2025 14:50
Russia’s budget, which is rapidly losing oil and gas revenues, has a new headache.
The price of Urals, the main export brand of Russian oil producers, has fallen below $50 per barrel for the first time since spring. According to Reuters, citing traders, in the port of Primorsk on the Baltic Sea, quotations in the middle of the week dropped to $47.4 per barrel, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
As a result, Urals for the first time fell below the updated EU price cap, which is set at $47.6.
Russian oil is falling in price in line with global oil prices, which this week have updated their lows since May. The price of Brent has fallen by 15% in three weeks and is now just above $60.
The reason is the truce between Israel and Hamas, which has reduced tensions in the Middle East and threats to tankers passing through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, experts say. Currently, the market is focused on the oil surplus organized by OPEC countries, which are increasing production.
From April to September, the cartel increased supplies by 2.2 million barrels per day, and next year it may add another 1.2 million barrels of daily production to the market. As a result, the global oil surplus next year could reach a record high of 4 million barrels per day, according to the International Energy Agency.
Falling oil prices promise new problems for Russia’s federal budget, which lost 21% of its commodity revenues in January-September. Initially, the draft budget for 2025 was based on the assumption that a barrel of Urals would be $70, but the target level was later lowered to $58. Along with it, the plan for oil and gas revenues was radically reduced: instead of 10.9 trillion rubles, the authorities now expect only 8.6 trillion.
In the budget for 2026, the Ministry of Finance has set Urals at $59 and maintained commodity revenues at a low level of 8.9 trillion rubles, which is 20% lower than in 2024. With record military spending, this promises a deficit of 3.8 trillion rubles for the treasury.
