Price swings: how electricity prices for Ukrainian businesses have changed and why
13 February 17:01
ANALYSIS FROM 
A shortage of any product pushes up its price. The electricity market has experienced such shocks more than once in recent weeks. What is happening there, how is the price of electricity for industry formed and what does it depend on?
To get a feel for price fluctuations in the electricity market, anyone can visit the website of the state-owned company Market Operator and view the results of auctions, which determine the market component of the cost of electricity for businesses. Price changes—both downward and upward—can be as high as several tens of percent.
In addition to this variable component, there are several fixed tariffs set by the National Commission for State Regulation of Energy and Public Utilities (NKREKP). This is the electricity transmission tariff – the fee for the services of the transmission system operator Ukrenergo. The regulator has estimated the electricity transmission service for 2026 to be 7.2% more expensive than it was in 2025. There is also a distribution system operator tariff, which is set for each energy distribution company. In some regions, the increase in this tariff this year was insignificant – for example, within 5% for Kyiv. But in some regions, the increase was as high as 30% and 40%. There is also a tariff for universal service providers, which is also set once a year by the NEURC. However, the share of all these tariffs in the overall structure of the price of electricity for the end consumer is not very large compared to the purchase price of electricity.
Small and large businesses have different opportunities in this market, but the price of electricity does not please either of them. Daria Orlova, an electricity market analyst at ExPro, continues.
“When we talk about business, small businesses are usually small non-domestic consumers, and they use what is known as a universal service. This service is usually provided by regional companies. The cost of this universal service includes several components. The first and most significant is the purchase price of electricity. This is precisely what has caused such an increase in bills for end consumers. This price is tied to the “day-ahead market” and is calculated according to a specific formula for a specific period. Large businesses can choose their own supplier. And they can independently determine the purchase price of electricity, a fixed price. Although few people work this way now. Currently, these are most often contracts that are tied to prices on the “day-ahead market” again. In other words, this price is decisive in contracts for large industrial businesses and for universal service users. And we see that in January there was a very large increase in prices on the day-ahead market, partly due to attacks on energy facilities and an increase in price caps,” the expert explains.
As a reminder, this refers to the decision of the NEURC, which in mid-January raised the price caps on the day-ahead market, intraday market, and balancing market. On the one hand, this allowed for a maximum increase in electricity imports, but on the other hand, it led to higher electricity prices for businesses.
Industry representatives are calling for this decision to be reversed. As noted in a recent appeal by the Federation of Employers to the head of government, after the introduction of new price caps on the electricity markets, there was a sharp increase in its cost, which significantly worsened working conditions for energy-intensive enterprises, jeopardizing the continuity of production, job preservation, and the fulfillment of export contracts.
Currently, the average price of electricity on the market is over 12,000 UAH/MWh, which is more than 30% higher than in January. In addition, this “day-ahead market” is quite volatile, dependent on many factors, and prices on it can either fall or rise sharply. Information on electricity prices available on the Market Operator’s website can help you get a feel for the range of price fluctuations in this market:
February 11, 2026, day (8 a.m. to 11 p.m.) – 10,111.94 UAH/MWh
12.02.2026, day (8 a.m. to 11 p.m.) – 6548.00 UAH/MWh
February 13, 2026, daytime (8 a.m. to 11 p.m.) – 12,247.06 UAH/MWh
What influences such price changes? Daria Orlova, an electricity market analyst at ExPro, explains.
“Why such fluctuations? In recent days, for example, it depended on the restoration of additional nuclear generation capacity. After the attack on February 7, nuclear generation reduced production due to damage to substations. A few days later, after repairs, it was possible to increase production capacity. And, accordingly, there is additional supply in this spot market segment. And if there is additional supply, the price goes down. Changes in the weather can also have an impact. For example, when we see sunny weather, prices on the “day-ahead market” fall because there is additional supply. Then there is another blow to thermal generation capacity. And prices rise. All this has an impact on the market,” says Daria Orlova.
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“If we are talking about large-scale industry, theoretically, such a price is possible if we are talking about a high purchase price for electricity, if it is an expensive imported resource. Because it was indeed quite expensive in January and February due to the cold spell in Europe and the resulting price increases. If we are talking about universal service recipients, I specifically looked at several regions. I found prices of 15, 16, and 17 hryvnia per kilowatt-hour in January and February. In other words, I did not actually see a price of 22 hryvnia per kilowatt-hour anywhere. But if such a cost of electricity is offered to small businesses, then I advise contacting your electricity supplier for clarification to find out how the purchase price of electricity was calculated and what it consists of,” the expert notes.
As for the electricity tariff for citizens, it remains stable at 4.32 hryvnia per kilowatt-hour. A few days ago, First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy Denys Shmyhal once again provided clarification, assuring that the government does not plan to increase the electricity tariff for the population from May 1.
Author: Serhiy Vasilevych
