Oil prices are rising: can Trump hurt Russia?
31 July 2025 09:54
Oil prices are rising for the fourth day in a row as investors are concerned about US President Donald Trump ‘s threats to impose tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil. This is reported by "Komersant Ukrainian" with reference to Reuters.
Brent crude oil futures for September delivery, which expire on Thursday, rose 27 cents, or 0.4%, to $73.51 per barrel as of 02:28 Kyiv time. U.S. West Texas Intermediate for September delivery rose 37 cents, or 0.5%, to $70.37 per barrel.
Both benchmarks ended trading on Wednesday up 1%.
The more active October contract for Brent rose 29 cents, or 0.4%, to $72.76.
Trump against Russia
“Secondary tariffs for states that import Russian oil could complicate supplies. Concerns about this continue to stimulate buyer interest,”
– said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities.
On Tuesday, Trump said he would begin to impose measures against Russia, including 100% secondary tariffs on its trading partners, if it does not make progress in ending the war within 10-12 days. Thus, he moved the previously set 50-day deadline.
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The United States against the world
On Wednesday, Trump said that the United States is still negotiating with India on trade after announcing earlier in the day that he would impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from the country starting August 1.
The US has also warned China, the largest buyer of Russian oil, that it could face huge tariffs if it continues to buy it. China allegedly responded with a categorical rejection of this ultimatum.
On Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury Department announced new sanctions against more than 115 individuals, organizations, and vessels associated with Iran. This marks a redoubling of the Trump administration’s efforts as part of the “maximum pressure” campaign following the bombing of Tehran’s key nuclear facilities in June. China is the main buyer of Iranian oil.
The situation inside the United States
Meanwhile, crude oil stocks in the United States increased by 7.7 million barrels over the past week to 426.7 million barrels due to lower exports. Analysts had expected a decrease of 1.3 million barrels.
Gasoline stocks fell by 2.7 million barrels to 228.4 million barrels, significantly exceeding forecasts of a 600 thousand barrels decline.
“The US data showed an unexpected increase in oil stocks, but the significant decline in gasoline stocks indicates high demand during the summer season. Overall, this had a neutral impact on the oil market,”
– said Tazawa from Fujitomi Securities.
To hurt Russia
It is well known that Russia is critically dependent on its energy exports. First of all, on oil exports. In 2024, the federal budget revenues from oil sales amounted to 9.19 trillion rubles (approximately $89.4 billion). Total budget revenues for this period amounted to 36.71 trillion rubles. Thus, the share of oil revenues in the total structure of Russian budget revenues in 2024 was approximately 25%
This indicates that, despite international sanctions and attempts to diversify revenue sources, oil remains a key source of financing for the Russian budget.
Russian Urals oil is traditionally sold at a lower price than Brent and WTI, and it is also subject to additional factors that raw materials from other countries do not experience, namely Western sanctions. However, during all three years of the full-scale war with Ukraine, Russia has been successfully selling its oil – its main buyers today are China and India.
The federal budget of the Russian Federation for 2025 included an oil price of $70. According to the Ministry of Finance, on July 29, the price was $66.96 per barrel.
So far, market analysts’ forecasts do not promise Russia any serious problems related to the oil price, as it still has a very large backlash for sales. According to economic expert Oleg Pendzin, even a price of $50 per barrel is still acceptable for Russia.
“Currently, the direct cost of Russian oil production is about $37-38 per barrel. This is the direct cost. The critical figure for Russia is the sales price of $45,”
– the economist explained exclusively for .
So the more likely way to hurt Russia over oil is still to increase sanctions, including secondary sanctions against its buyers. The point of this step is to make it physically impossible for Russia to sell large volumes of oil and get the funds to continue its aggressive war of aggression.
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