Food prices in Ukraine break records: what to expect in spring 2025
10 March 16:50
This year, particularly in spring, Ukrainians will have to spend more on vegetables, dairy products and alcohol.
The biggest price increase in 2025 is observed for potatoes, carrots and beets, and milk, sour cream and butter have also gone up in price.
Deputy Chairman of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council Denis Marchuk noted that before the new harvest vegetables in Ukraine will rise in price by another 15%.
Therefore, food prices in Ukraine have already increased by 10-15%, and in some cases – even by 50% or more. Forecasts for the first half of 2025 promise even higher increases. For example, expert Larisa Guk from the information and analytical center “AGRO PERSPECTIVA” reports that consumers have already been unpleasantly surprised by the prices for some basic products.
Butter, milk, oil, as well as potatoes, cabbage and buckwheat may become even more expensive. In particular, butter has become a scarce commodity, and its price already exceeds 100 hryvnias per package, and milk has become more expensive due to the shortage caused by market conditions. Butter is likely to become even more expensive due to a decrease in its production.
The expert notes that the most expensive will be the products that are the basis of the daily diet of many Ukrainians: bread (especially freshly baked bread and pita bread), buckwheat, carrots, potatoes, cabbage.
So what should Ukrainians expect from food prices in the spring of 2025 – economist Oleg Pendzin answered this question in an exclusive commentary for "Komersant Ukrainian".
Rise in food prices: objective factors
Oleg Pendzin explains that food prices in Ukraine will continue to rise for several objective reasons.
“On the whole range of food basket will continue to rise in prices,” notes the economist, “These are objective processes, because the harvest of 2024 was not very good.”
This is especially true for the so-called borscht set – traditional vegetables from which borscht is prepared. Already in November last year, imported products started to be imported into Ukraine, although usually this does not happen before spring. The price forecast for these vegetables remains unchanged until the end of May, when the new harvest in Ukraine will begin.
Bread and butter: increase in price
As for bread, Pendzin notes that the prices for bread of mass varieties will gradually increase – by 1.5-2% monthly. This is due to the poor grain harvest in Ukraine. The situation is similar with butter, the prices for which have been actively increasing since December 2024.
Expensive products: slower, but still will rise in price
However, not all goods will rise in price in the same way. Pendzin explains that for expensive products such as meat, dairy products, premium cheeses and nuts, the increase will be more moderate.
“Demand for these products is decreasing, so their prices will rise more slowly,” says the economist.
Changes in the social environment also affect prices. Pendzin notes that the middle class, which traditionally did not save money on food, is now forced to turn to cheaper products. According to the economist, this is confirmed by sociological research – 47% of Ukrainians have started to save on food and look for cheaper products.
What is the situation with eggs now?
Eggs have become a special subject of discussion. Prices for this product rose sharply at the end of last year. However, Pendzin notes that usually egg prices rise before Easter.
“This is a traditional moment, and we may see prices rise to 75-80 hryvnias per dozen.”
Reasons for the price hike include the harvest, energy and labor market problems
Pendzin points to several main reasons for the rise in food prices:
- Apoor 2024 harvest – a significant drop in production, particularly of potatoes.
- Energy problems –power cuts increase the cost of production.
- Labor shortages – high demand for workers leads to higher wages, which also affects the price of goods.
“The shortage of workers in working specialties contributes to higher wages and therefore to the cost of production,” Pendzin concludes.
The cost of the consumer basket: Ukrainians spend more
Pendzin notes that in Ukraine the share of spending on products in the family budget is significantly higher than in European countries.
“The average European family spends 12-18% of its budget on food, while Ukrainians spend more than 50%,” the expert notes.
Problems with pensions and inflation
Especially painful is the issue of inflation and its impact on pensions. Pendzin explains that the average inflation in Ukraine is 12.9%. Therefore, the current indexation of pensions by 11.5% will not even cover the inflation index, which leads to a decrease in the real purchasing power of pensioners.
Recalling Poland, Pendzin emphasizes that although the consumer basket in Ukraine and Poland are generally similar in price, the level of wages in Poland is much higher.
“In Poland the average salary is 1600 dollars, in Ukraine – a little more than 500 dollars,” – notes the economist.
Oleg Pendzin emphasizes that for Ukraine’s economy to recover, it is necessary for an additional 5 million working hands to return to the country
“However, until there are changes in the quality of life, we are unlikely to see a mass return of Ukrainians from abroad,” he adds.
So, food prices in Ukraine are expected to continue to rise in 2025.
Among the reasons are poor harvests, energy problems, labor shortages and inflation. At the same time, decreasing real incomes of Ukrainians and increasing expenses for food and utilities create serious social challenges for the country.
