Sugar is in the red: oversupply on the market has brought prices down to their lowest level in eight years
31 December 20:14
Global sugar prices in 2025 experienced their deepest annual decline since the late 2010s. Cane sugar fell by about 22%, the largest decline since 2017. This was reported by Bloomberg, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
What is known
Despite local fluctuations – in particular, the growth of the most active futures contract in New York by 1.6% in the middle of the week – the overall trend of the year remained downward. A similar situation is observed in the white sugar market: London futures lost about 15%, recording the largest annual drop since 2018.
Why prices are falling
Analysts say the main reason is the expectation of oversupply. The leading exporter, Brazil, is showing high production volumes, and India, one of the world’s key producers, is resuming production after previous restrictions. As a result, global supply is projected to significantly exceed weakened demand.
Uncertainty factor
At the same time, the situation is not unambiguous. The uncertainty about production in Thailand, one of the largest sugar exporters in Asia, is creating additional tension in the market. Due to delays in cane processing, output there lags behind last year’s figures.
Covrig analyst Claudiu Covrig lowered the harvest forecast in Thailand by 400-450 thousand tons, noting that production “continues to surprise on the negative side.”
Taking into account the correction of the Thai forecast, Covrig now estimates the global sugar surplus at 3.6 million tons, instead of the previously expected 4.1 million tons. This slightly reduces the scale of the surplus, but does not change the overall picture of the year, in which the market remained under pressure from record supply.
