Temporary protection in the EU: all possible scenarios for Ukrainians after the expiration of the term
23 October 15:48
Temporary protection for Ukrainians in the EU is valid at least until March 4, 2027, but European countries and the Ukrainian government are already preparing for its gradual end. This does not mean a sudden return of all refugees – decisions will be made individually and taking into account the military situation in Ukraine. This was stated by Ilona Havronska, Deputy Minister of Social Policy, Family and Unity for European Integration, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports
According to Gavronska, there are several main scenarios that Ukrainians can expect after the expiration of the EU Temporary Protection Directive.
What is temporary protection and why it may be terminated
Temporary protection gives Ukrainians the right to live, work, receive social benefits, education and medical care in the EU.
It was introduced after the start of the full-scale invasion as an emergency support mechanism.
The extension or termination of this regime will depend on whether it is safe to return to Ukraine.
“Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the EU has shown true solidarity by introducing this mechanism. We are currently in constant communication with our European partners to ensure that our citizens are prepared for possible changes in their stay. And, of course, any decisions on the end of temporary protection, which is valid until March 4, 2027, should be made taking into account the security situation in Ukraine,” Havronska emphasized.
4.3 million Ukrainians under EU protection: what may change
Possible scenarios after the end of temporary protection:
| Scenario | What it means | Potential categories of Ukrainians |
|---|---|---|
| Switching to other types of residence permits | Work, educational, humanitarian or family visa | Those who have a job, business, family or study |
| Voluntary return to Ukraine | Organized return with the support of the state and the EU | Especially for those planning reintegration |
| Refugee status or complementary protection | Application of the Geneva Convention | Persons who cannot return due to threats |
| Extension for vulnerable groups | Children, families with schoolchildren, people with disabilities, the elderly | The EU government already recommends not to interrupt the educational process |
Will everyone have to return?
No. The EU has already confirmed that the decision will be flexible and phased. No one will be obliged to leave en masse.
Countries can independently extend the stay of certain categories of Ukrainians.
An individual approach is considered depending on the circumstances of the person: work, education, family, health.
For example, the European Commission has recommended that children be allowed to finish the school year even if their protection is officially over.
What Ukrainians abroad say
64% of Ukrainians currently under temporary protection want to return home if it is safe to do so.
The Ukrainian government is preparing support programs for those who return, including
- employment assistance,
- housing programs,
- psychological adaptation.
What this means for Ukrainians right now
There is no need to rush into a decision, but it is worthwhile:
- update your documents and follow the legislation of the host country;
- prepare for the possibility of switching to other types of permits;
- follow the announcements of the EU and Ukrainian government agencies;
- do not expect sudden changes – the process will be gradual and controlled.
What Ukraine is doing now
Negotiations are underway with the EU on individual mechanisms for extending protection.
A unity network is being created – a system of support centers for Ukrainians abroad and in Ukraine.
A phased return plan is being developed for those who wish to return.
“Our task is to help Ukrainians maintain ties with their homeland and with each other, as well as to make informed decisions about possible return. In particular, the unity network we are currently building will help them with this. It will include both the Unity Centers and existing public initiatives of Ukrainians abroad,” added Ilona Havronska.
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