Pentagon has 25% of Patriot stocks left: aviation expert talks about Russia’s weaknesses and preemptive strategy
8 July 2025 19:23
ANALYSIS FROM 
The Patriot air defense systems, which have become Ukraine’s key shield against Russian missiles, have been the focus of alarming reports in Western media. According to The Guardian, the United States has less than a quarter of the ammunition for these systems left – “current stockpiles are below the minimum level required to meet the Pentagon’s operational plans.” How will the small stock of Patriot missiles affect the situation in Ukraine? Why shouldn’t expensive missiles be used to shoot down cheap shahedis? And whether Ukraine can create mass production of its own air defense systems – more in the article
The Guardian journalists, citing sources in the defense ministry, point out that a significant part of the arsenal was spent not only to support Ukraine, but also in the Middle East. The situation, according to the publication, began to deteriorate sharply after 2022, when the Joe Biden administration began large-scale arms supplies to Kyiv.
The Guardian points out that the lack of ammunition was one of the reasons for the pause in military aid to Ukraine:
Donald Trump’s administration began reviewing stockpile levels in February. After deployment of additional batteries in the Middle East, the situation has only worsened – The Guardian
Earlier, Bild, citing experts, warned: “Ukraine could run out of Patriot missiles in a week or two.”
“Without these missiles, Russian Daggers will break through,” warns analyst Thomas Tyner.
Patriot systems are the most important target for Russia
Despite the alarming statistics, the US military recognizes that Patriot has become a key factor in deterring Russian air attacks. According to Business Insider, the system has proven to be effective, in particular against the X-47M2 Dagger ballistic missiles.
There was no doubt about its capabilities. But it was surprising to see how Ukraine adapted to Russia’s new methods,” says Lieutenant Colonel James Compton of the 10th U.S. Air Defense Command.
Compton’s colleague, Sanjeev “Jay” Siva, adds.
“These systems have become priority targets for the enemy. They must be constantly protected and tactics must be adapted: movement, camouflage, longevity, – Sanjeev “Jay” Siva
Experts warn that the US Patriot shortage could create a critical gap in Ukraine’s defense, especially given Russia’s recent massive strikes on infrastructure and energy.
The success of the Patriot is also their biggest threat. Russia is hunting them as a priority target,” Siva admits.
It’s pointless to waste missiles on chess, says aviation expert Kryvolap
In the face of a constant threat from the air, new trends are emerging in Ukraine: on the one hand, the improvement of air defense systems, and on the other, the urgent need for preventive strikes against enemy missile launch sites. This was discussed in an exclusive commentary for
“Shooting down the Shahed with any missile, except for small-sized ones that operate up to 10 kilometers, is nonsense. It is a depletion of the system,” emphasized Kryvolap.
According to the expert, the use of expensive missiles to destroy Shahed-type kamikaze drones is irrational. The enemy is deliberately launching massive waves of UAVs to deplete air defense resources and “prepare the ground” for more targeted and powerful strikes.
Kryvolap emphasizes that the development of air defense should go hand in hand with offensive actions, including strikes on enemy missile launch and storage sites.
“If we hit the points from which missiles are launched, destroy the airfields from which MiG-31Ks with Daggers take off, this is no longer the task of air defense, but the task of our intelligence and industry,” says Kryvolap.
Delaying the missile program is a strategic mistake
“The missile program was announced more than a year ago, and funding began only this year,” the aviation expert said.
“The necessary defense initiatives are being implemented with a great delay. Ukraine has long been aware of the threat posed by ballistic missiles and shahedis, but the mass production of its own response capabilities has been delayed, Kryvolap said.
The expert paid special attention to a recent report on the depletion of US air defense arsenals.
Can Trump not use the information about the threat of depletion of US stockpiles? He can’t. He will definitely use it,” Kryvolap is convinced.
Against the backdrop of suspension or delays in supplies from warehouses in Poland, Ukraine must prepare for options where the level of air defense supplies will be even less uniform.
Kryvolap summarized that the real strengthening of Ukraine’s defense means not only accurate interceptions, but also systemic responsibility at all levels, the development of the missile program, and retaliatory strikes. Because the best air defense is a destroyed source of threat before the missile is launched.
Author – Anastasia Fedor
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