In a traditionally stable Europe, there will be plenty of political instability in 2025
1 January 2025 09:56
By global standards, the European Union is a haven of stability, but the coming months in Europe may be characterized by significant political upheaval. Der Spiegel has written about the countries and elections to watch in Europe in 2025, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
The German magazine reminds that in the two most important countries of the alliance – Germany and France – 2024 ended in government failure.
In Berlin, this crisis can be resolved with the help of new elections already scheduled for February 23, but in Paris, the situation is much more complicated.
Political crisis in France
Three irreconcilable blocs are opposing in the French parliament: the far right, the forces of the conservative center, which are united around President Emanuel Macron, and, finally, the increasingly disunited left. None of these three groups is strong enough to govern the country on its own. At the same time, there is almost no desire to form a coalition.
If the opposition is to be believed, the current crisis has already led to a significant weakening of Macron and may result in his resignation. Although the French president does not agree with this. But what will be his political legacy? If the far-right Marine Le Pen ends up in the Elysee Palace after 8 years of Macron’s rule, the current French president’s rule will most likely be recognized as a failure. After all, he took office in 2017 with promises to push the right to the political margins, but instead their popularity grew and grew.
However, the success of the European right-wing populists will be decided not only in France, but also in Poland.
A fundamental race in Poland
In May 2025, presidential elections are to be held in the country. The outcome of these elections will also determine the ability of the Polish government to act.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his alliance of conservatives, liberals, and leftists replaced the national conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party in 2023. However, since then, many reforms have been vetoed by the current president, Andrzej Duda, who remains loyal to PiS. If the Law and Justice candidate Karol Navrotsky wins the presidential election, Tusk will have no choice but to continue fighting the ongoing blockade. If a candidate from Tusk’s camp wins, Polish democracy will have a chance to put the illiberal development of PiS in the past.
Coalition negotiations in Austria
According to Der Spiegel, democracy and the rule of law are also under threat in Austria. There, the conservative Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), the Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPÖ), and the liberal NEOS are negotiating a three-party coalition. Their main goal is to prevent the pro-Russian far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ) from coming to power, despite the fact that this party won the September elections. A viable government agreement was supposed to be concluded by January.
