Gas prices in Europe have risen to a two-month high: what is driving prices up?
14 January 07:50
Natural gas prices in Europe have risen sharply, reaching their highest levels in two months. On the Dutch TTF gas hub, futures for February delivery rose to €32.37 per MWh during trading on January 13, according to exchange data. This was reported by the industry publication ExPro, citing trading data, according to "Komersant Ukrainian".
In two days, prices rose by almost 14%: after a 6.6% increase the day before, the market rose by another 7%. This daily dynamic was the strongest since June 2025.
Why gas prices are rising in Europe
Analysts point to several factors that are simultaneously putting pressure on the market:
- Cold weather. Most European countries are experiencing cold spells, which increases gas consumption for heating and power generation.
- Faster depletion of underground gas storage facilities. Growing demand is leading to more active withdrawals from underground storage facilities. Currently, reserves in European underground gas storage facilities are approximately 12 billion cubic meters lower than last year: the fill rate is about 54% compared to 66% a year ago.
- Higher CO₂ quotas. Carbon emission prices have risen to €90 per ton, the highest in 2.5 years. This encourages power generation to switch from coal to gas, boosting demand.
- Problems with nuclear power generation in France. Interruptions at nuclear power plants are forcing gas-fired power plants to increase electricity production.
- Geopolitical risks. Tensions surrounding protests in Iran, even taking into account limited gas exports from the country, create additional risks for the global energy market and support speculative demand.
How this affects Ukraine
Despite the European surge, the effect on the Ukrainian market is currently limited. Low trading activity and subdued domestic demand prevent prices from responding quickly to European trends.
As of January 12, natural gas in Ukraine was trading in the range of UAH 23,200–23,450 per thousand cubic meters, equivalent to EUR 36.4–36.8 per MWh, depending on the resource.
What to expect next
Further price dynamics will depend on the weather in the second half of winter, the speed of nuclear power generation recovery in France, and the rate of consumption of underground gas storage reserves. If the cold spell continues and CO₂ emission allowances remain expensive, gas in Europe may remain highly volatile.
At the same time, the key restraining factors for Ukraine remain the internal balance of supply and demand and regulatory mechanisms, in particular preferential prices for certain categories of electricity producers.
