Within reach — Moscow: expert explains what the appearance of Nightfall missiles in Ukraine means and how many can be obtained
12 January 19:06
The United Kingdom is preparing to transfer a new class of weapons to Ukraine—Nightfall ground-based tactical ballistic missiles capable of striking targets at a distance of up to 500 kilometers. This means not only an expansion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ strike capabilities, but also a qualitatively new level of deterrence: key Russian military and logistical facilities, including the capital region, are within the potential strike zone. In fact, Ukraine now has a tool that changes the geography of war and forces Moscow to seriously consider the threat of a deep rear strike for the first time. What specific targets deep inside Russia are under threat? How many such missiles can Ukraine actually obtain?
What is Nightfall and why is it important?
The UK is preparing to transfer a new class of weapons to Ukraine — Nightfall ground-based tactical ballistic missiles capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to 500 kilometers. These are high-precision missiles with a warhead weighing about 200 kilograms, which potentially open up fundamentally new opportunities for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to strike deep into the enemy’s operational rear.
According to preliminary data, the cost of one missile could reach £800,000, and contracts for development are planned to be signed as early as March.
As aviation expert Konstantin Kryvolap explains in an exclusive comment for
“The British are not just declaring their support for Ukraine — they are acting systematically. This is a combination of real military aid and business interests, which is producing results. And Nightfall is one such project,” notes Konstantin Kryvolap.
According to him, the UK is actually building a model of a century-long partnership with Ukraine by investing in joint defense development and production.
Replacing ATACMS: what the new missile can do
Nightfall is considered a more modern analogue of the American ATACMS. Its main advantages are mobility, speed of launch preparation, and significant range.
“The Ukrainian military has long said that they critically need a range of at least 300 km to be able to confidently hit enemy military targets. Nightfall gives up to 500 km, which is already a level of corps impact,” Kryvolap explains.
The missile will have a high-explosive warhead weighing about 200 kg. The launcher is capable of quickly taking up position, launching in a matter of minutes, and leaving the area just as quickly, reducing the risk of retaliation.
However, unlike Tomahawk cruise missiles, which are launched from ships or aircraft and fly relatively slowly, Nightfall is a ground-launched ballistic missile. This means a significantly shorter flight time, a more complex trajectory for interception, and greater resistance to air defense systems.
A strike at the heart of Russian logistics
A range of 500 km allows the Armed Forces of Ukraine to operate outside the enemy’s active strike zone, while striking key elements of the Russian rear — warehouses, supply nodes, headquarters, and repair bases.
“Our military wants to ‘clear’ a strip of up to 300 km so that Russian logistics cannot physically exist there. Nightfall makes it possible to render the Russian Federation’s operational rear incapable of supporting combat operations,” emphasizes Kostyantyn Kryvolap.
Timelines and risks: the main problem
However, despite the strategic promise of the project, there are also serious limitations. Currently, only a tender for the development of the missile has been announced in Britain. Three companies will receive funding — £9 million each. Proposals must be submitted by February, and the winners will be determined in 2026.
“According to the plans, the first serial missiles are to appear in 2027, and the production rate will be about 10 units per month. For us, this is both long and small. But even at this volume, it is a new level of opportunity,” Kryvolap concludes.
So Nightfall is not just about a specific weapon. It is a signal to the Kremlin that the West is ready to move from limited solutions to systemic, long-term programs that change the balance of power.
And the main question now is whether Nightfall will be the first step toward a full-fledged missile shield and sword for Ukraine.
