Fighting on the energy front: what Kyiv should prepare for in winter after the strike on Druzhba
19 August 17:16
EXCLUSIVE
Ukraine has attacked the Russian Druzhba pipeline, which transports oil from Russia to Europe. Last night, official Kyiv attacked the Nikolskoye oil pumping station in the Tambov region with drones. As a result, oil pumping from there has been completely stopped. At least two countries were left without fuel: Hungary and Slovakia.
What consequences will the destruction of the Druzhba pipeline have for the global fuel market, European countries that buy Russian oil, Russia in general, and Ukraine itself?
For the regional fuel market, the shutdown of the Druzhba oil pipeline in the southern direction, which supplies raw materials to a number of refineries in Central Europe, means short-term risks of shortages of certain brands of oil products, changes in supply logistics and potential growth of price volatility in consumer countries.
In an exclusive commentary
“The attack on the oil pumping station is an extremely serious event. The complete shutdown of Druzhba demonstrates the accuracy and effectiveness of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
Druzhba Pipeline: Damage Assessment and Recovery Horizons
Energy expert Gennady Ryabtsev, who was also interviewed by journalists
There is no accurate information, and the video footage only confirms the fact of the incident. Given what we have seen, oil transportation is likely to be resumed within a month,” he said.
According to the expert, the case of Druzhba’s destruction also has a legal dimension.
It would be logical to officially stop the transit of Russian oil through the territory of Ukraine, using the provisions of the Association Agreement with the EU regarding the threat to national interests. This would transfer the situation to the legal plane and remove some of the claims of the governments of consumer countries,” Ryabtsev added.
He clarified that he was referring primarily to Hungary and Slovakia, which have received exemptions from the fuel embargo and are heavily dependent on Druzhba.
In this case, since we are actually at war, I think this is one of the most significant threats to national interests. It is very strange that the Ukrainian side has not yet taken advantage of the opportunity provided by the regulatory documents. At the same time, attacks on these oil pumping facilities can and have already caused a negative reaction from two governments – the Hungarian and Slovak – which could have been prevented if everything had been done within the legal framework, using the opportunities agreed to by Hungary and Slovakia, which ratified the Association Agreement,” Ryabtsev explained his position.
Energy war and logistical alternatives
Political analyst Ruslan Bortnik , commenting on the actual destruction of the pipeline, called it a “hot phase of the energy war,” in which the parties strike at critical infrastructure.
“We (the Ukrainian military – ed.) have systematically damaged at least three Russian oil pumping stations. In response, Russia is hitting Ukraine’s supply infrastructure, in particular, facilities that could ensure gas imports from Azerbaijan or Romania,” he said.
According to the expert, this situation means that alternative routes are coming to the fore for the market:
- supply of crude oil by tankers to the Adriatic with further pumping through the Adria pipeline;
- reverse schemes through neighboring countries;
- increasing the processing of “non-Russian” raw materials where refineries are technically modernized for “mixed baskets” .
However, switching to other grades, rebalancing blends, and redistributing logistics takes time and money, which puts pressure on refiners’ margins and may affect final fuel prices in the B2B and retail segments.
Will the Ukrainian GTS withstand the hot phase of the energy war
Despite the escalation, Ukraine’s gas transportation system remains a key stabilizing factor for the business, with its extensive network of pipelines and underground storage facilities that allow accumulating significant volumes of gas and quickly maneuvering flows between entry and exit points. According to Yuriy Kamelchuk, a member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Energy,
“In addition to physical protection of the hub facilities, operators have implemented digital monitoring systems that allow them to track pressures and flows in real time and mitigate the consequences of any incidents. This is important amid the risks of a shortage of import routes and a seasonal increase in consumption in the fourth quarter.
The expert also drew attention to the differences between oil and gas infrastructure. According to him, Ukraine’s gas transportation system was built with increased risks in mind and has a significant margin of flexibility.
The system is equipped with backup routes, integrated underground storage facilities, and mechanisms for prompt redirection of flows. This makes it possible to respond to threats and fulfill contractual obligations even in the event of intense shelling or accidents,” Kamelchuk emphasized.
“For traders and large consumers, this is an important signal: gas logistics is now more adaptive than oil logistics, and therefore operational risks for industry and generation from the GTS remain under control.
How the loss of Druzhba will affect fuel prices and what large oil importers should prepare for
Oil traders and large consumers should build several scenarios into their models. If Druzhba is restored in a short time, the effect on the domestic fuel market will be limited to temporary volatility and spot premiums in the EU border regions.
If the repairs take months, competition for tanker shipments in the Mediterranean will increase, and refiners in Central Europe will increase supplies of alternative grades, leading to changes in benchmarks and differentials.
For Ukrainian businesses, the key risks in this situation are the nervous behavior of wholesale quotations and the increase in working capital needed to finance inventories.
The blow to Druzhba: the political dimension of the case
Experts emphasize that Ukraine’s legal position should be clear and synchronized with the EU to avoid accusations of “unauthorized influence” on supplies to countries with official exemptions.
Security measures – from physical protection to digital monitoring – help maintain energy resilience. But at the same time, we need to work on long-term mechanisms that minimize any dependence of the region on Russian hydrocarbons,” Kamelchuk summarized.
“For businesses, this is a signal to accelerate the diversification of supply sources, revise hedge policies, and prepare for the fall with a margin of financial and logistical strength.
Ukraine has destroyed the Druzhba gas pipeline: what is known
For the first time, it was reported that Ukraine had caused serious damage to the Druzhba pipeline on August 13. At the time, Hungary accused Ukraine of leaving the country without Russian oil by the Ukrainian military. This was done by Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó .
According to him, that night, the Ukrainian Defense Forces destroyed two Russian pumping stations of the Druzhba pipeline with a strike. They are located at the Unecha production and dispatch station in the Bryansk region of the Russian Federation.
The aggressor country’s losses were also confirmed by new high-quality satellite images.
In addition, according to the Russian Ministry of Energy, the attack damaged a transformer substation that ensures the operation of the pipeline.
“The Unecha pipeline is key to the transportation of Russian oil to the port of Ust-Luga, which accounts for a significant portion of Russia’s oil exports, and to supply oil to the Belarusian refinery in Mozyr.
And on Monday, August 18, unmanned aerial vehicles struck the Nikolskoye oil pumping station in the Tambov region of the Russian Federation. The Nikolskoye oil pumping station is a part of the Russian economic infrastructure that is involved in supplying the occupation forces.
The General Staff reported that a fire broke out there as a result of the hit. Oil pumping through the Druzhba main oil pipeline stopped completely.
On the same day, Pravda wrote that two countries stopped receiving oil at once: Slovakia and Hungary.
On the evening of August 18, the information that the Druzhba pipeline had been completely destroyed by Ukrainian drones was confirmed by the commander of the SSF, Robert Brovdi , with the call sign Magyar.
“Druzhba ceased to exist: how the world reacted
Hungary was the first to complain about the problems with the pipeline on August 14. Official Budapest really depends on fuel and lubricants from Russia. Hungary imports more than 50% of Russian Urals oil through the Druzhba pipeline.
Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó said that by attacking the pipeline, Ukraine “has made an attempt on Hungary’s sovereignty, of which energy security is a part.”
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga responded to this . He advised Szijjarto to “complain to his friends in Moscow,” noting that Budapest did not want to get rid of its oil dependence on the Kremlin even when Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale offensive against Ukraine.
The Hungarian foreign minister was quick to respond. He said that Ukraine’s chief diplomat should “complain about the Russians” rather than blame official Budapest.
Fact one: Russia has been transporting oil to Hungary through the Druzhba pipeline for decades. This is in Hungary’s interest. Fact two: Ukraine attacks this pipeline, and oil shipments are regularly interrupted by Ukrainian attacks. This is against Hungary’s interests,” Szijjarto said.
In addition, Georg Spethle, a pro-Russian Hungarian political expert, said that
“Ukraine is making provocations by attacking the Crimean bridge, the nuclear power plant, the Druzhba pipeline to show its European allies and Donald Trump that it is capable of continuing this war, capable of new attacks even now, and on strategically important objects.
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What you need to know about the Druzhba pipeline
The Druzhba oil pipeline is one of the largest in the world and is key to the transportation of Soviet, and later Russian and Kazakh oil to Central and Eastern Europe. Its construction began in 1960 by the decision of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA). The main goal was to ensure stable energy supplies to the countries of the socialist bloc.
The first branch of Druzhba was put into operation in 1964. The route ran from Samara through Bryansk, then divided into northern and southern directions. The northern branch supplied oil to Belarus, Poland, and Germany, while the southern branch went through Ukraine to Czechoslovakia and Hungary. Later, other countries joined the system.
The total length of the oil pipeline exceeds 4,000 kilometers, and together with the branches it reaches about 8,000 kilometers. The maximum capacity in the Soviet period was estimated at over 60 million tons of oil per year.
“The Druzhba pipeline became a symbol of economic integration of the socialist camp, and after the collapse of the USSR, it remained an important route for Russian oil exports to Europe. Transit countries, including Ukraine, Belarus, and Poland, received significant profits from its operation.
Today, the pipeline remains strategically important for Europe’s energy security, although it is often at the center of political and economic disputes.
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