Strike on the oil terminal in Novorossiysk: experts explain why Kazakhstan is reacting sharply and Ukraine should give a diplomatic response
1 December 2025 15:04
The Ukrainian strikes on the oil transshipment terminal in Novorossiysk provoked a sharp reaction from Kazakhstan, which stated that there were possible risks to its oil transported through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC).
At the same time, Ukrainian military experts in a commentary
Kazakhstan is silent on a key detail – Russia’s controlling stake
Military expert Oleg Zhdanov in a commentary
“51% belongs to the Russian Federation. And there is no guarantee that there is no Russian oil there. And if there is Russian oil there, even one barrel, it is an absolutely legitimate target for our fire strikes,” Zhdanov emphasized.
He also noted that Ukrainian diplomacy should be involved in such a situation:
“Where is our Ministry of Foreign Affairs? They should give a detailed statement and remind the Kazakhs that this is a war, and everyone should make up their minds.”
According to the expert, Ukraine should officially respond to the accusations, explaining the legal and military grounds for the strike.
Terminal attack hits Russian revenues and will force Kazakhstan to look for other routes
Military expert Dmitry Snegirev in a commentary
- the terminal cannot be restored;
- it reduces the logistics capabilities of the CPC;
- russia loses significant revenues from the transportation of Kazakh oil.
“This reduces the ability to pump oil. And the Russian Federation’s earnings on transportation. Currently, revenues to the Russian budget are significantly reduced,” he explains.
According to him, Kazakhstan, although a member of the CSTO, has long pursued an independent policy, including increasing oil production contrary to Moscow’s position. This has led to a drop in prices for Russian oil, which is now sold at a discount of about 40%.
Snegiryov also points to the broader context – Ukraine’s attacks on the oil terminal and shadow fleet tankers took place on the eve of the US delegation’s visit to Moscow.
“This can be seen as a signal from the United States about a further possible scenario. Direct military and economic pressure on Russia on the eve of negotiations with the dictator.”
According to the expert, at the time of the attacks, an American long-range radar aircraft was spotted in the Black Sea, an indirect indicator of coordination with the allies.
