Ukraine as the first line of defense: IDF military reveals Kremlin’s new strategy against the West
10 February 16:48
ANALYSIS FROM 
Europe is entering a period of dangerous illusions of calm. A new report from the Munich Security Conference warns that a ceasefire in Ukraine will not mean the end of the war, but could be the start of a new phase of aggression for the Kremlin. In this logic, Ukraine is not the ultimate goal, but the first line of a broader confrontation between authoritarian Russia and the West. Could a ceasefire in Ukraine really be the beginning of a new war in Europe? How long will it take Russia to rebuild its forces and strike NATO countries? Why is the Baltic region already considered a high-risk zone? And most importantly, is Europe ready to learn from history so as not to repeat the mistakes of the past?
Moscow is preparing for a new phase of confrontation with the West, and Ukraine is only the first stage of the Kremlin’s broader strategy. This is stated in a new report by the Munich Security Conference (MSC), which warns that if active hostilities in Ukraine cease, Russia will be able to rebuild its forces for a “local war” against one of the NATO countries within six months, and for a “regional conflict” within two years.
Ukraine is only the first stage
In an exclusive comment for
According to him, the Russian Federation has already used virtually the entire spectrum of conventional weapons, except for nuclear weapons, and the massive civilian casualties testify to the deliberate destruction of the international security system.
“Ukraine is, unfortunately, only one episode in the Kremlin’s aggressive intentions. If Ukraine had not survived, Russia would have already moved on, using Ukraine’s economic, military, and human potential,” Tamar emphasizes.
He also warns that only the initial stages of the hybrid warfare doctrine are currently being implemented in Europe, and further delay by the West could lead to direct military confrontation.
Grigory Tamar draws parallels with the events of World War II, recalling Czechoslovakia and Poland, which had international security guarantees but were effectively “traded” or left alone with the aggressor.
“Security guarantees without real readiness to fight do not work. This is a historical lesson that Ukraine and Europe have no right to ignore,” Tamar emphasizes.
The Baltic states — a high-risk zone
The Munich Security Conference report notes that Russia has significantly intensified its hybrid warfare against European countries. In particular, in the fall of 2025, about 20 Russian drones violated Polish airspace, and three MiG-31 fighters were in Estonian airspace for 12 minutes. Both countries were forced to initiate consultations with NATO in accordance with Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
According to experts, these incidents are not accidental, but elements of a systematic test of the Alliance’s response.
In an interview with DW, Wolfgang Ischinger, acting chairman of the Munich Security Conference, stated outright that Russia is waging a hybrid war “in all dimensions” — against Europe as a whole and against individual countries, particularly Germany.
“We have had murders, cyberattacks, and large-scale propaganda activities. So it is not surprising that Russia is looking for any way to influence political decisions and public opinion in the West,” Ishinger emphasized.
Commenting on the possible Russian connection in the Jeffrey Epstein case, the diplomat noted that he had no evidence, but “if such a connection is found, it will not come as a surprise.”
Thus, the Munich Security Conference report and the assessments of military experts agree on one thing: a pause in the war against Ukraine will not mean peace in Europe. On the contrary, it could become a window of opportunity for the Kremlin to prepare a new strike.
European countries will have to choose between rapidly strengthening their defense capabilities, taking real steps to deter Russia, and risking a new war — this time on NATO territory. In this configuration, Ukraine remains a key security outpost for the entire European continent.
