“Ukraine must disrupt the congress in Transnistria” – experts on the situation in the Transnistrian region
23 February 2024 11:47
The self-proclaimed authorities of Transnistria are preparing a “congress of deputies of all levels” on 28 February. Rumours are circulating in the unrecognised pro-Russian republic that the congress will ask Putin to accept the TMR into the Russian Federation. 
asked military experts how likely this scenario is and what Ukraine should expect from it.
Military expert Ivan Yakubets believes that it is quite likely that Transnistria will be “accepted” into the Russian Federation on the eve of Putin’s “elections” in Russia. After that, a Russian enclave will officially appear in the Ukrainian rear.
“We will have a Russian enclave in our rear. Like Kaliningrad in Lithuania and Poland. This is very dangerous… If they declare this territory Russian, then, firstly, there may be an open front. But the big question is whether the population will support this. After all, there are 30% Moldovans, 30% Ukrainians, and 30% people of Russian origin. And for us, this will be a legitimate territory for strikes,”
– yakubets believes.
Ihor Koziy, a military expert at the Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation, agrees that the “acceptance” of the Transnistrian region into Russia could mean the opening of a second front:
“This may mean that Russia can take the same actions from this direction as it does from the occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia regions and Crimea.”
What to do?
Ukraine, Moldova and all other “stakeholders” (except, obviously, Russia) are now reaping the rewards of their passivity in dealing with the TMR. Everyone remembers last year’s talks about how the Ukrainian Armed Forces could easily and quickly “deal” with the TMR and get huge ammunition depots at their disposal. However, this, of course, requires Moldova’s consent. But, as they said and say there, “there is no scenario in which Moldova would agree to such an operation by the Ukrainian Armed Forces”.
But it is quite obvious that Transnistria was not created to be “dissolved”, experts believe. Therefore, Ukraine is simply obliged to pursue an active policy towards Transnistria. For now, Ukraine should do everything possible to prevent the planned congress from taking place.
“The issue can be resolved in different ways, but the fact that we are not paying attention to it is wrong. The fact that Moldova is fighting internal separatism alone is also wrong. We need to help each other in some way, to resolve this issue. Today, Ukraine must take many steps to prevent these congresses and other things from happening. If we don’t understand this, sooner or later the caliphate will explode,”
– said Koziy.
If Moldova continues to be as passive as it is, Ukraine should work directly with the TMR, adds Ivan Yakubets:
“We must disrupt this congress and do everything to prevent this from happening. Neutralisation, only neutralisation. Which should consist of political measures, special measures. Moldova has no influence on Transnistria. Now we need to work with Transnistria. They are completely closed by our borders, they have no way out either by sea, air or land. So we need to work with them.”
Read more about the situation with the Congress of Transnistrian deputies here:
