Ukraine is looking for new sources of gas: will an alliance with Africa save the country from a cold winter?
27 March 15:12
ANALYSIS FROM 
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held talks with Mozambican President Daniel Chapa regarding potential gas supplies to Ukraine. Zelenskyy emphasized that Ukraine is seeking to diversify its energy sources. At the same time, Mozambique is interested in leveraging Ukrainian expertise and technology to strengthen internal security and protect its citizens from terrorist threats.
Zelenskyy wrote about this on his Telegram channel.
Additionally, according to the president, the parties discussed prospects for cooperation in the areas of digitalization and food security. He added that teams from both countries agreed to work together on these issues.
Gas imports: why Ukraine is seeking new sources
Ukraine is forced to cover its gas deficit through imports, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG), which is supplied via European partners. This was stated in an exclusive comment for
“Ukraine currently does indeed need to import gas. This is mainly liquefied natural gas, which we receive via European countries, where it is regasified and then enters our system via gas pipelines,” the expert explained.
According to him, Ukraine’s domestic production is insufficient to meet its needs.
“We consume over 20 billion cubic meters of gas per year, while we produce approximately 16–18 billion. Therefore, we are forced to look for alternative sources of supply,” Sarkits noted.
The African Direction: Focus on Mozambique
Mozambique, which possesses significant gas reserves and is developing LNG projects, could become one of the potential partners.
“Mozambique is interested in Ukrainian security technologies, and Ukraine is interested in energy resources. This is a mutually beneficial partnership,” the expert emphasized.
He explained that the supply logistics would look like this: gas extraction in Mozambique, its liquefaction, transportation by tankers to EU terminals, and then supply via pipelines to Ukraine. Sarkits also drew attention to major international projects in the country, particularly those involving TotalEnergies.
“Mozambique has one of the largest gas reserves in Africa and is gradually becoming a global LNG exporter,” he added.
Key suppliers, including the U.S. and Qatar, are competing in the European liquefied natural gas market.
“Due to tensions in the Middle East, supplies from Qatar have become complicated, so Europe is forced to seek alternatives more actively,” the expert explained.
At the same time, he noted, the Russian Federation remains a player in the international market despite sanctions.
“Europe is balancing between energy security and sanctions policy. Easing restrictions could have serious consequences,” Sarkits emphasized.
Norway plays an important role among European gas producers, but its capacity is limited.
“Norway already covers over 30% of the EU’s needs and can add only another 3–5%. This does not fully solve the problem,” the expert noted.
Therefore, EU countries will continue to depend on LNG imports from outside Europe.
Mozambique’s gas potential: volumes, destinations, and recipients
A partnership with Mozambique in the gas sector appears profitable only in the long term, but it has a number of serious limitations. This was stated in comments to journalists
“If you look at the real situation in Mozambique, not everything is stable there: the central government does not control the entire territory, and semi-insurgent groups are active in the north,” the expert noted.
According to Pendzin, Mozambique remains one of the poorest countries, which affects the pace of energy project development.
“It is an incredibly poor country with major food security issues—a typical example of an African economy,” he explained.
In addition, gas production there is just beginning and does not yet have a complete cycle.
“As of today, field development has essentially just begun. At best, full-scale production won’t be possible until 2029,” the economist emphasized.
Logistics and Timelines: Key Constraints
The expert notes that even if production develops, supplying gas to Ukraine will be a complex and lengthy process.
“We’re talking about gas liquefaction, transport by tankers, and complex logistics—it’s a very complicated and expensive scheme,” Pendzin noted.
He emphasized that there is no point in talking about quick results.
“This is definitely not a quick solution—we shouldn’t talk about actual deliveries before 2029,” he added.
Strategy vs. Tactics
According to the economist, cooperation with African countries makes sense from a strategic perspective but cannot address Ukraine’s current energy needs.
“From a strategic standpoint, Ukraine needs to expand its sphere of interest and work with different regions of the world. But from a tactical standpoint, this is not a solution for today,” he explained.
In addition, there are political risks.
“It is unknown who will be in power in the country in 2029 and whether the interest in cooperation will remain,” the expert noted.
Pendzin also highlighted Mozambique’s interest in Ukrainian products, particularly food.
“They are genuinely interested in food and a potential exchange of resources for food. But the problem is that right now they have virtually nothing to offer in return,” he concluded.
At the same time, he said, it is too early to discuss specific volumes of gas supplies.
“If we’re talking about 2029, it’s too early to discuss any volumes at all,” the economist concluded.
Who else can support Ukraine with gas supplies?
Among other partners that could help increase gas volumes for Ukraine is Romania. During a press conference, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Kyiv is negotiating with Bucharest regarding joint projects for the extraction and storage of natural gas.
He also emphasized that Ukraine needs diesel fuel. Zelenskyy noted that he had appealed to the Romanian president for assistance, stressing the importance of support as Russian attacks destroy Ukrainian storage facilities.
What is the current situation with gas?
The situation in the Middle East could affect the volume and cost of imported gas for Ukraine. In particular, the escalation of the conflict has already led to a significant increase in the price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Europe and worldwide.
At the same time, Ukraine plans to transition to cogeneration in accordance with the Resilience Plan, which will require additional gas volumes. However, due to rising prices, experts note that securing funding for its purchase will be difficult.
