Ukraine, the US, and the election: what will happen if Zelenskyy refuses?
19 February 2025 11:27
After the Russia-U.S. talks in Saudi Arabia, U.S. President Donald Trump criticized the Ukrainian leadership, as well as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and said that elections should be held in Ukraine, as Zelenskyy’s support among Ukrainians “has dropped to 4%.” Is this an ultimatum for Kyiv, or is it a signal for change? How do political circles react to these statements, and what consequences can they have for the country?
As a reminder, the United States wants Ukraine to hold elections, possibly by the end of the year, especially if Kyiv can agree on a truce with Russia in the coming months.
Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, said in an interview that the Ukrainian presidential and parliamentary elections, which were suspended during the war with Russia, “need to be held.”
The elections in Ukraine were supposed to be held in March 2024, but since martial law was imposed throughout the country, the voting was postponed indefinitely.
Earlier, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that elections without the participation of the military, Ukrainians from the occupied territories and those abroad would not be fair.
Elections as another war
Political analyst Volodymyr Tsybulko in a commentary
“Here, I think, we need to develop ad hoc legislation, a separate one. Because in reality, elections are a small war, and we will have an internal war as well,” says Volodymyr Tsybulko.
In his opinion, it will not be possible to guarantee the integrity and legitimacy of the electoral process without specially written rules.
Follow us on Telegram: the main news in brief
The expert emphasizes the need to ensure the key principles of elections, including non-interference of the authorities in the electoral process, prevention of fraud and fair recognition of the results by all participants in the race.
“We need commitments, firstly, from the authorities not to interfere in the elections, not to falsify them, and secondly, from the participants in the elections to recognize the election results,” the political scientist emphasizes.
If the government uses administrative resources and favors a single candidate, the elections will not be able to provide the necessary reset of the government, which will only increase social tension.
“That is, if the government suddenly uses fraud and some administrative resources in favor of a single candidate, it means that these elections will not bring a reset of power and some internal calm,” explained Tsybulko.
Internal situation and challenges
According to Tsybulko, the current situation in the country is characterized by a high level of distrust in the government on the part of a large part of society.
Follow us on Telegram: the main news in brief
“Now there is, I would say, such a very tough attitude against Zelensky in a huge part of society,” he notes.
At the same time, many of the authorities’ actions remain outside the scope of legal response, which only exacerbates the crisis of trust.
“In addition, I would say that there are many illegal actions of the authorities that are not challenged by the prosecutor’s office or anyone else. And the opposition has no opportunity to act within the law either,” the expert adds.
The solution to this problem could be a return to the Constitution, which would ensure the electoral mechanism as an effective tool for political stabilization.
Russian interference as a threat
The political scientist pays special attention to the threat of Russian interference in the electoral process in Ukraine. He emphasizes that any external interference can completely destroy the democratic nature of the elections.
“But if Russia wants to reset the government of Ukraine, it must at least stop the fighting and not interfere in the election campaign in Ukraine. It should not sow its influence, nor its social networks, nor its media. That is, Russia should take a kind of vow of silence for the period of the Ukrainian elections,” concludes Volodymyr Tsybulko.
Does Zelensky have room for maneuver?
Political analyst Andriy Zolotarev believes that Zelenskyy still has some choice, but his options are gradually narrowing:
“I don’t see an ultimatum here, I see conditions being put forward: either this or that. I would not call it an ultimatum. An ultimatum is like this, or nothing else.”
According to him, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy still has some freedom of choice, but the room for maneuver is gradually narrowing.
Follow us on Telegram: the main news in brief
“It may take a few more months, there is a possibility. But still, if the United States sets the goal of holding elections in Ukraine, and then a full-fledged peace agreement in the hope that the political leadership will change, they have the means to put pressure,” the political scientist explains.
Possible leverage
Zolotarev emphasizes that the United States has effective leverage if it decides to insist on elections in Ukraine.
“Starting with the audit and disconnection of Starlink and the termination of military aid. Any military officer can tell you what consequences this will have. That is why I think that Vladimir Alexandrovich will hesitate for some time, and then he will have to give in to the demands,” the expert emphasizes.
He also believes that Europe will not be able to compensate for the opportunities and resources that Ukraine has received from the United States.
“Our partners from Europe will not compensate for the opportunities and resources we received from the United States. We have to face the truth,” the political scientist adds.
What to expect next
Zolotarev notes that the future of Ukraine largely depends on the position of the United States and the election results.
“Trump’s demands remain in force. The probability that he will “crawl back” and reduce the pressure is 10%, no more. That is because the Middle East and Ukraine, the end of the war in Ukraine are a matter of principle for him, so that after that he can start rebuilding the United States and sorting out relations with the Democrats,” the political scientist explains.
Thus, the situation remains tense, and further developments will depend on diplomatic decisions and international influence. Ukraine is forced to balance between the demands of its partners and the domestic political reality.
Follow us on Telegram: the main news in brief
