Ukraine is creating its own air defense system: what is known about the Patriot analog and when will it appear?
27 February 2025 17:54
ANALYSIS FROM 
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine is working to create a Ukrainian analog of the US Patriot air defense system. He spoke about this during a press conference, answering a question about the impact of a possible suspension of US aid on the situation at the front.
“Regarding the Patriot system. By the way, not all issues have been resolved at the Washington NATO summit. This is true, unfortunately, the deadlines are being delayed. As for the Patriot system, I’m talking not only about the new ones, but also about the ones we agreed on. This was in July last year. We are actively working on these issues, dealing with air defense systems and developing Ukrainian analogues. I will not say anything else,” Zelensky said.
What kind of analog can we be talking about, when such weapons can appear on the battlefield, how much they cost and what targets they can hit –
Ukraine’s own air defense system: what can we expect?
Roman Svitan, a military expert and retired colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, shared with
Svitan explained that the basis for a new Ukrainian air defense system could be the S-300. Since Russia created the S-400 and S-500 on the basis of this system, these systems have the ability to intercept ballistic missiles, which shows the potential for improving existing Ukrainian systems.
“The S-300 is a basic system that can be modernized. The main thing is the missiles. Ukraine has experience in developing such missiles, and it all depends on how much effort is invested in this process,” he emphasized.
Mr. Svitan also said that Ukraine could use the launchers of other missile systems, including Neptune, as a basis. The control system and locators for such systems are already available and can be adapted for new purposes.
“We can develop a system that will work similarly to Patriot, but using our own missiles,” the expert noted.
One option is to use Grom missiles, which already have extensive operational experience and can be adapted to intercept ballistic missiles.
“This may not be a classic kinetic system, but a more “cloudy” system that works against air targets, with the ability to hit ballistic missiles,” he added.
Time and cost: how much will it cost to create your own air defense system
As for the time and cost of creating our own air defense system, Roman Svitan noted that the production of such a system is not too difficult if we use existing developments.
“If we don’t develop from scratch, it can take from 1.5 to 2 years to create the system. If we start the development from scratch, it may take 5 to 7 years,” Svitan explained.
As for finances, according to preliminary estimates, the development of the new complex will cost Ukraine several hundred million dollars.
“The project will require about $200 million to launch, taking into account existing developments,” the expert said.
How many complexes will be produced
Another important issue is the number of complexes that Ukraine will be able to produce annually. According to Roman Svitan, the realistic production volume is 3 to 5 complexes per year.
“It all depends on financing and the scale of production, but with the capacities we have, we can produce 3-5 systems per year. In 10 years, we can fully provide Ukraine with our air defense systems,” Svitan added.
Technical difficulties in destroying ballistic missiles
Aviation expert and analyst Kostyantyn Kryvolap also shared his thoughts exclusively for KU on how Ukraine managed to start working on the creation of an analog of the US Patriot air defense system, and also spoke about the technical aspects of this project.
“Regarding aerodynamic targets such as airplanes, missiles, and chessboards, Ukraine can develop an air defense system that can destroy them. This is not something extremely complicated, there are many such systems in the world, and Ukraine has already had experience with the development of such complexes,” Kryvolap said.
But when it comes to destroying ballistic missiles, there are significant difficulties. The expert emphasized that none of the Russian systems, such as S-300, S-350, S-400 or S-500, can effectively destroy ballistic missiles as the Patriot does.
“The Patriot system uses the Erint missile, which was first used in 1994. It is capable of destroying ballistic missiles due to its high speed, overloads of up to 50G and targeting accuracy,” said Kryvolap.
The expert explained that the Patriot system provides for sophisticated missile guidance algorithms that can operate in real time. With the help of precise calculations and quick decision-making, the missile is guided to hit the target. This requires large computing power and technologies that are not easy to adapt.
“The system requires extremely fast response, high computing power and accuracy. The missile is guided to the ballistic target in a matter of seconds,” said Kryvolap.
Simplified work with the Ukrainian analog
Kryvolap noted that for the Ukrainian military, working with the new system will be less complicated than with Patriot due to the use of artificial intelligence.
“Artificial intelligence can significantly reduce the number of operators and make the system more convenient to use,” the expert explained.
According to Mr. Kryvolap, the military will not have any difficulties in training on the Ukrainian equivalent of Patriot. Since the system will be less complicated, modern simulators, which are already widely used for training pilots and other military specialists, will be used to master it.
“Training for the Ukrainian military will not be more complicated than working with Patriot. Everything will work on modern simulators,” emphasized Kryvolap.
The expert summarized that Ukrainian weapons are of great value, as they allow us to act independently, without the need to coordinate actions with other countries.
“When the weapons are ours, we do not ask for permission. We decide where and how to strike. And this is extremely important in today’s warfare,” said Kryvolap.
He also expressed confidence that against the backdrop of the limited capabilities of the United States and other countries, Ukraine is able to make significant progress in creating effective air defense systems that can protect the country from external threats.
Thus, given the existing capabilities and experience in developing missile systems, Ukraine has every chance to create its own air defense system, which, although not an exact analog of the Patriot, is capable of performing the same functions.
Given the potential that already exists and the resources needed for development, this project could be an important step toward strengthening Ukraine’s defense capabilities.
