Ukrainian corn holds the price, but for how long: what exporters are advised
8 May 15:21
May will remain an active month for corn trading, but it is already worth preparing for a possible decline in prices. This is the opinion of the analysts of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, as reported by the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
What are these forecasts based on?
Ukrainian corn, as it turns out, is now significantly losing in price to American corn. Thus, last week, Spanish importers bought corn from the US at $245-247 per ton, while Ukrainian products were offered to the Spanish market at $268-273. The situation is similar in other key destinations – in Egypt and Turkey, where U.S. corn is cheaper by $20-25 per ton, forcing importers to rethink their priorities in favor of the United States.
According to analysts, despite the fact that Ukrainian corn does not contain GMOs, this premium already looks excessive.
“This creates a risk of losing traditional markets: Turkey is already signaling a switch to corn of American origin,” the experts say.
What is the price situation on the domestic market?
The Ukrainian market is relatively stable. Last week, the notional prices reached $240-243 per ton. In hryvnia equivalent, the price of corn in ports is at 11 400-11 500 UAH/t.
“But in June, a significant drop in prices is possible without further recovery, because the market is objectively overheated,” analysts of the PUSK cooperative emphasize.
At the same time, they remind that corn, despite all the challenges, remains one of the most profitable crops and almost 2 million hectares of this grain have already been sown in Ukraine.
Corn has been the most exported commodity since the beginning of the year
In January-February 2025, Ukraine exported 4.7 mln tons of this grain, worth USD 982 mln.
According to the State Customs Service, corn was the key export commodity, accounting for 26.5% of agricultural exports and 16% of Ukraine’s total exports.
Most of all, it was exported to Spain – 933 thousand tons, Italy – 725 thousand tons, Turkey – 639 thousand tons, Egypt – 593 thousand tons, and the Netherlands – 514 thousand tons.
Since the beginning of 2024/25 marketing year, as of April 28, the exports of corn amounted to 18 343 thsd tonnes, which is more than 4.1 mln tonnes or 18.5% less than last year.
Ukraine is expected to increase corn production
According to the forecast of the balance of major crops for the 2024-2025 marketing year prepared by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Ukraine can expect an increase in wheat and corn production.
According to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, the forecast for global corn production increases by 1.7 million tons to 1,214.2 million tons. The growth in Ukraine will be plus 0.3 million tons to 26.8 million tons.
At the same time, exports are expected to decline and ending stocks are expected to fall.
