“Ukrainian grain is again becoming a bargaining chip in the Polish elections”, – representative of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council
8 October 2024 15:01
EXCLUSIVE
Polish farmers have once again announced a several-month blockade of the border with Ukraine, allegedly because of the influx of Ukrainian grain. Similar protests have already taken place earlier this year and last year. "Komersant Ukrainian" contacted Denys Marchuk, deputy head of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, to find out the reasons for the new escalation and possible consequences for the Ukrainian agricultural sector.
The agrarian claims that this action is primarily aimed at creating a picture for the viewer. After all, since the reopening of the grain corridor, most of Ukraine’s exports are carried out by sea. This has significantly reduced the burden on the land borders with the EU, particularly Poland. Consequently, Ukrainian grain cannot be deposited there in quantities that are significant for Polish farmers.
“In fact, there is no need to talk about oversaturation of the [Polish] market with Ukrainian products. Almost all of our grain is shipped by sea, and road transport to Europe has become unprofitable. Therefore, I see more politics than economics in this situation,”
– said the expert in an exclusive commentary 
.
Instead, the deputy head of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council emphasises the political aspect of the problem. It is known that the previous “farmers’ protests” on the border with Ukraine took place just before the local elections in Poland and “strangely” ended after them. But the next presidential election in Poland is due in May 2025. So the election campaign has already begun.
“We are entering a phase of political confrontation against the backdrop of the upcoming presidential campaigns in Poland. Both sides have seen that this has played a role. I mean the transport protesters, then the farmers’ protesters – they felt that it had some kind of electoral basis. Therefore, unfortunately, Polish politicians will continue to use this as a certain moment to score political points,”
– marchuk believes.
Will the protests spread to other products?
According to the expert, there is a greater likelihood of official restrictions on Ukrainian exports to the EU at the level of the European Commission. They are already actively working on this this year, and next year the “free trade” quotas will become even stricter.
“They’ve already imposed restrictions on honey, they’ve imposed restrictions on oats, they’ve imposed restrictions on sugar. They threaten to do the same for chicken. I don’t know if they will apply it to corn, because there was a drought not only in Ukraine but also in Europe. Last season, they bought more than 15 million tonnes, and given the shortfall this season, I think they are, on the contrary, interested in Ukraine exporting. Another question is what we can offer, given the losses in corn that farms will suffer this season?”
– commented Mr Marchuk.
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According to him, the situation is definitely favourable only for Ukrainian dairy producers.
“We have a good situation with milk, in the sense that there is even a memorandum signed between Ukrainian and foreign dairy producers to develop the market. If you look at statistics, Europe is only increasing imports of Ukrainian dairy products. The reason is that their livestock numbers are decreasing, subsidies are decreasing, and there are not many people willing to do this. Therefore, it is beneficial for both us and them,”
– the farmer is convinced.
In general, Denys Marchuk is confident that “trade wars” will be a constant companion of Ukraine’s European integration process until Ukraine joins the EU, so we must be prepared for this.
Border blockade and trade wars
Polish farmers began blockading the border with Ukraine in November 2023 due to an influx of Ukrainian grain. According to the blockade participants, Ukrainian grain reduces prices for their products and makes them less competitive.
The main demand of the previous wave of protesters was the cancellation of the preferential trade regime with Ukraine and the return of the permit system for importing goods into Poland.
As part of the protest, Polish farmers blocked truck traffic, even transit traffic, at checkpoints on the Ukrainian-Polish border, and sometimes even the movement of freight trains across the border. Several times, the protesters poured Ukrainian grain directly onto the ground.
These actions continued until the end of April 2024. The Polish government did not attempt to unblock the routes and generally supported the protesters’ position. Thus, Poland imposed an embargo on Ukrainian grain and threatened to impose an embargo on all Ukrainian agricultural products.
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