Ukrainian migrants will start returning home only in 2027
3 August 08:21
Over the next two years, 200,000 people will leave Ukraine. A gradual return of migrants is expected only in 2027.
This is reported by "Komersant Ukrainian" with reference tothe “Inflation Report” of the National Bank of Ukraine (July 2025).
The rate of departure of Ukrainians has decreased, but the outflow continues
In the first half of 2025, the number of Ukrainian migrants increased by 60 thousand people. This is less than in the first half of 2024, when more than 200,000 people left the country.
According to the United Nations, as of July 1, 2025, 5.6 million Ukrainians are outside Ukraine. High security risks, including shelling by the Russian Federation, are causing further departures.
The return of Ukrainians is hampered by their status in the EU
The European Union has extended temporary protection for Ukrainian refugees until March 2027. After that, EU countries must determine new regimes for the stay or return of Ukrainians.
These decisions will depend on the internal policies of the countries, the adaptation of migrants, availability of work, payment of taxes, or education of children. The NBU predicts that the extension of the status will deter the return of citizens in the medium term.
NBU forecast: full return only in 2027
The NBU estimates that in 2025 and 2026, 200,000 people will leave Ukraine each year. However, the April forecast predicted that the return would begin in 2026 (200 thousand).
The net return is expected only in 2027 – about 100 thousand people. Previously, 500 thousand migrants were expected to return.
UN revises refugee accounting methodology
The UN has twice changed the methodology for estimating the number of Ukrainian migrants. In June 2023, instead of taking into account border crossings, it began to take into account only those with temporary protection.
In May 2025, 1.2 million people in the Russian Federation who did not have current refugee status were excluded from the calculations. Currently, only 7,000 Ukrainians have temporary protection in Russia.
Ukrainians are gradually losing their residency
According to the NBU, some Ukrainians are adapting to life abroad and losing their residency status in Ukraine. This reduces the chances of a mass return in the short term.
“The risks of increased hostilities and/or intense shelling of the rear regions, occupation of new territories, or a much longer duration of high security risks remain significant. If such risks materialize, migration outflows will increase,” the NBU said in its review.
According to the NBU, in 2024, the outflow of migrants from Ukraine continued and totaled about 500 thousand people over the year.
