Ukrainian corn exporters are advised to monitor the weather in South America
27 March 14:21
Amid high corn prices, Ukrainian farmers have already exported about 1.8-1.9 million tons and are still maintaining good rates of product shipments. However, the situation on the global market may change soon. Analysts of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, established within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, draw attention to this, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
It is emphasized that today Ukrainian corn is quite expensive on the world market.
“For example, Ukrainian producers offer corn to the Spanish market at a price of $257-260 per ton, while Argentine products are $10-15 cheaper – at $245-248. As a result, key consumers in the EU do not show active demand. In addition, new batches of Argentine grain are expected in April, which will put even more pressure on prices,” the analysts said.
At the same time, they emphasize that according to the satellite monitoring data, the soil moisture level in the so-called “small” states, which account for almost 45% of corn production, is decreasing in Brazil. If weather conditions continue to deteriorate, this could affect yields and trigger a new price increase.
“So far, the only positive news comes from Turkey, which has reduced the duty on corn imports and opened a quota. It is the demand from this direction that is currently supporting the prices of Ukrainian corn. However, according to experts, the quota may be enough for a week, provided that trade is active. As soon as the quota is exhausted, the market may drop to $215-220 in April, and against this background, farmers should carefully weigh their decision to sell,” the experts add.
Thus, they summarize, the situation on the corn market remains ambiguous: in the short term, prices may fall, but in the medium term, in case of a negative scenario in Brazil, growth in May-June is possible. Accordingly, Ukrainian producers should closely monitor weather conditions in South America and be prepared for both scenarios.
What is the overall situation with corn exports?
Since the beginning of the year, corn has played an important role in the structure of Ukraine’s exports. It accounts for 26.5% of the total agricultural production and 16% of the country’s exports in general. This is reported by AgroWeek.
According to the State Customs Service, since the beginning of the year, Ukraine has shipped 4.7 million tons of corn to international markets worth 982 million USD.
The largest volumes of corn from Ukraine were exported to the following countries:
Spain – 933 thousand tons,
Italy – 725 thousand tons,
Turkey – 639 thousand tons,
Egypt – 593 thousand tons,
The Netherlands – 514 thousand tons.
In 2024, corn exports reached 29.6 mln tonnes worth $5.1 bln.
What about the forecasts for 2025
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has updated the forecast of the balance of major crops for the 2024/2025 marketing year, where the production of Ukrainian wheat and corn remained unchanged, but the volume of their exports decreased. This was reported by the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club.
According to the updated forecasts, in 2024/2025 marketing year, the production of wheat and corn in Ukraine will remain at 22.9 mln tonnes and 26.5 mln tonnes respectively. As for exports, the forecast for wheat was reduced by 0.5 million tons to 15.5 million tons, and for corn by 1 million tons to 22 million tons.
