Ukrainian exports have almost no impact on grain prices in Poland – analyst
19 March 2024 11:15
Experts from the Institute of Public Finance (IPF) in Poland have refuted the claim that imports of Ukrainian agricultural products to Poland have a decisive impact on Polish farmers. In their analysis“Seeds of Dissent:Analysis of Agrarian Protests“, they showed that this is not true, Kommersant Ukrainian 
citing Ukrinform.
The researchers examined the messages circulating in Poland during the “grain crisis” and the corresponding farmers’ protests. They found that imports from Ukraine have almost no effect on grain prices in Poland or the EU. They also refuted the idea that part of Ukrainian grain comes to Poland via Lithuania.
Experts stressed that the embargo on imports from Ukraine also has no significant impact on prices on the agricultural market. They noted that Poland’s trade balance with Ukraine in agricultural products is negative, but not for all products, for example, there is a positive balance in the meat and dairy sectors.
According to the analysis, imports from Ukraine are not the main cause of economic problems for Polish farmers. Instead, global factors, such as prices on world markets, have a greater impact.
For example, in 2023, Poland imported only 1 million tonnes of grain from Ukraine, while Poland produces 35.2 million tonnes per year. Therefore, this “cannot be a factor that significantly affects the price drop”. Instead, prices on global agricultural markets (including the MATIF exchange) are regulated by supply and demand. That is, the global situation has a dominant influence on agricultural prices in the country, as well as throughout the EU.
The experts also drew attention to the possible consequences of a complete embargo on Ukrainian products for the Ukrainian economy and violation of international agreements. They pointed to potential opportunities to support Ukrainian trade with third countries through cooperation with the EU.
Thus, the conclusions of IPF’s analysis emphasise that the situation on the Polish agricultural market cannot be explained by imports from Ukraine alone, but requires a comprehensive consideration of global factors.
Border blockade
on9 February 2024, Polish farmers began a new nationwide strike and blockade of the border with Ukraine, which is scheduled to last until the end of April. It was initiated by the independent farmers’ trade union Solidarity. The main demand of the protesters is to cancel the preferential trade regime with Ukraine and to return the permit system for importing goods to Poland.
Poland has imposed an embargo on Ukrainian grain, Polish Deputy Agriculture Minister Michal Kolodziejczak said.
Ukrainians responded by blocking the border for Polish trucks.
Despite this, the EU extended the liberalisation of trade with Ukraine and Moldova until 5 June 2025, albeit with certain restrictions.
