Ukrainians have a mostly positive assessment of the Ukrainian-American Fossil Fuel Agreement – poll
7 May 12:07
As of the beginning of May 2025, 47% of Ukrainians had rather positive expectations from the signing of the US-Ukraine Minerals Agreement. This is evidenced by the results of a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
As part of the study, respondents were asked the question: “In your opinion, how will the Minerals Agreement signed by Ukraine with the United States affect Ukraine?”.
47% of respondents said that the agreement would rather have a positive impact on Ukraine, 22% of respondents expect negative consequences, and another 19% said that the signing of the Agreement would not affect Ukraine in any way. The remaining 12% were undecided.
Thus, KIIS experts summarize, the balance of positive and negative expectations is plus 25%, i.e. positive expectations prevail.
Regional specificity
The consequences of the adoption of the Agreement on Mineral Resources are traditionally assessed differently in different regions of the country.
Residents of the central part of Ukraine are the most positive: 52% expect positive changes, while 23% have negative expectations.
In the South, the balance is also positive – 50% vs. 23%. As well as in the West: 43% of people with positive expectations and 20% with negative expectations.
The largest number of skeptics live in the East, where only 33% of people gave optimistic forecasts about the agreement, while 26% were negative. However, even here, the share of those with negative expectations does not exceed a quarter, and the balance of positive and negative expectations is positive.
Attitude to the Subsoil Agreement and personal political sympathies
The Kyiv International Institute of Sociology also decided to find out how those who trust a particular politician perceive the Minerals Agreement.
The results show that in almost all cases, the share of those who expect rather positive consequences exceeds the share of those who expect rather negative consequences (i.e., the balance of assessments is positive).
The only exception is those who trust Yuriy Boyko. Among them, there are fewer of those who have positive expectations and slightly more of those who have negative expectations of the Agreement. There is also somewhat less optimism among those who trust Oleksiy Arestovych, although in his case, the balance of expectations is still positive. However, according to sociologists, these results are less reliable due to the small number of their supporters in the sample.
* Few respondents in the sample trust these public figures (less than 50), which limits the reliability of the results. Therefore, the data are indicative for understanding general trends.
As a reminder, on April 30, 2025, the Government of Ukraine and the Government of the United States of America signed an agreement to establish the U.S.-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund. on May 8, the Parliament may vote on the ratification of this Agreement.
The day before, the Verkhovna Rada Committee on International Policy recommended ratification of the Agreement in the Parliament, adding that the Agreement is valid throughout Ukraine within its internationally recognized state border.
Today, the same committee voted again and added a disclaimer to the previous decision.
As MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak explained, at the time of the vote, the MPs had not seen the text of the other two agreements, so they are not responsible for them.
Earlier, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, commenting on the content of the Minerals Agreement, drew attention to five key principles:
– The Fund is created on a 50/50 basis, and both parties have equal voting rights.
– Ukraine retains full control over subsoil, infrastructure and natural resources.
– New investments, not debts: the agreement does not provide for any debt obligations.
– The Fund will invest in projects and guarantee commercial purchases of products on a take-or-pay basis.
– The agreement will not pose an obstacle to Ukraine’s EU membership.
