“Ukrzaliznytsia is losing cargo and profits: how much will transportation volumes be reduced
10 November 17:20
“Ukrzaliznytsia predicts a further drop in freight traffic in 2025 – by 7% compared to last year. The total volume will drop to 160 million tons, while in 2024 the carrier transported 173 million tons. This was reported by Interfax-Ukraine, according to "Komersant Ukrainian".
According to the company’s forecast, growth in the next two years will be minimal – only up to 161-162 million tons, which means stagnation after several years of decline.
What exactly will be cut
The biggest decline is expected in key categories:
- Grain and flour – 31 million tons (minus 22.5% from 2024).
- Construction materials – from 35 million tons to 30-32 million tons.
- Coal – minus 17%, from 23 to 19 million tons.
- Ore and manganese – stabilization at 43-44 million tons, but with a further decline to 42 million tons in 2027.
The company hopes to partially compensate for the losses by using other types of cargo, the volumes of which are planned to increase by about 1 million tons annually.
What is known about financial pressure
According to Interfax-Ukraine, in 2021-2025, UZ’s cargo traffic decreased by 49%, from 315 million tons to 160 million.
The decline also affected profitability:
- 2024 – UAH 20.4 billion in profit,
- 2026 – expected UAH 3.2 billion,
- 2027 – losses of UAH 4.8 billion.
The company explains this by fixed tariffs, which have not changed since 2022, despite the fact that the producer price index has increased by 69%.
As a reminder, during his report to the Verkhovna Rada, Sergiy Leshchenko, a member of the Supervisory Board of Ukrzaliznytsia, emphasized that all of Ukrzaliznytsia’s resources have been exhausted and the company’s financial situation is becoming critical. If the situation does not change, the Ukrainian railroad may come to a complete standstill.
He said that in the first nine months of 2025, the company’s net losses amounted to UAH 7.19 billion, and without government support, the situation could become critical.
At the same time, large-scale asset optimization is underway, including cutting 25% of the administrative staff, transferring non-core hospitals and selling surplus property.
According to CEO Oleksandr Pertsovsky, UZ is trying to “keep the system moving,” but without gradual tariff indexation and debt restructuring, the company risks becoming unprofitable in the next two years.
Despite a partial recovery after the first years of full-scale war, the railroad still transports half as much cargo as in pre-war 2021.
The government is also preparing legislative changes that would see Ukrzaliznytsia structurally split into several separate companies.
