The Government approved the Demographic Development Strategy, according to which 25 million people may remain in the country: details of the document
2 October 2024 13:44
The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has approved the Strategy of Demographic Development of Ukraine until 2040 and its operational plan for 2024-2027 by Resolution No. 922-r of 30 September, reports "Komersant Ukrainian"
This strategy is a long-term programme document that identifies the key demographic challenges facing Ukraine, in particular as a result of Russia’s armed aggression. Its main goal is to create conditions for balanced reproduction of the population, preservation of human capital and stabilisation of the labour market.
It takes into account the need to restore the economy and ensure social stability during and after martial law.
The Strategy emphasises the importance of systemic measures to overcome the demographic crisis, in particular by reducing mortality, increasing the birth rate and managing migration processes.
The government acknowledges that demographic forecasting is extremely difficult in the current environment, but it nevertheless relied on the forecast of the Institute of Demography.
“…according to the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems of the National Academy of Sciences, by 2041 the population may decrease to 28.9 million people, and by 2051 – to 25.2 million people,”
– the Strategy says.
In general, the Strategy describes the current state and problems and indicates the strategic goals and objectives to be achieved.
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Description of problems and analysis of the current situation
Demographic crisis and depopulation
- Russia’s armed aggression has deepened the demographic crisis: the population has declined significantly, in particular due to depopulation (excess mortality over births) and mass migration of Ukrainians abroad.
- As of 2024, the population of Ukraine in the government-controlled territories is 31.1 million, a significant decrease compared to pre-war levels.
Low birth rate
- The fertility rate has fallen to a critically low level of 0.9, which is half the level required for simple population replacement.
- The reasons for this are uncertainty, stress due to the war, economic difficulties, and deteriorating reproductive health.
Increased mortality
- Deterioration of the population’s health due to the war, insufficient medical care, stress, and an increase in mortality among the military and civilian population.
- Premature mortality, especially among men, is exacerbating the demographic crisis.
Mass migration
- The forced emigration of a significant part of the population, mostly women and children. Most leave with no intention of returning, which significantly worsens the demographic situation.
- The loss of skilled labour and possible problems with economic recovery due to the outflow of personnel.
Internal displacement of the population
- Large-scale internal displacement of Ukrainians from insecure areas. Overpopulation of safe regions creates problems with access to housing, education and medical services.
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Strategic goals and objectives
Increasing the birth rate and supporting families
- Creating conditions for increasing the birth rate, ensuring access to quality medical services, and supporting reproductive health.
- Provide social and economic support to families, improve conditions for raising children, and provide financial incentives for having children.
Reducing mortality and improving public health
- Reducing premature mortality through enhanced preventive measures and improved access to healthcare, especially in rural areas.
- Programmes to promote healthy lifestyles, reduce the risks associated with bad habits, injuries and stress.
Migration management and return of Ukrainians
- Creating conditions for the return of Ukrainians who left because of the war or earlier. Support migrants by providing security, stable employment, and decent living conditions.
- Involvement of the Ukrainian diaspora and immigrants to compensate for the shortage of population and labour force.
Restoring the labour market and economy
- Rehabilitation and professional support for people affected by the war. Creation of new jobs in the areas of infrastructure restoration, construction, IT and other promising industries.
- Ensuring equal access to work for women, internally displaced persons and people with disabilities.
Preserving national identity
- Supporting national culture, language, and traditions as the basis for a sustainable demographic model.
- Ensuring freedom, dignity, and equal rights for all Ukrainian citizens as key elements of demographic sustainability.
Implementation
Implementation of the Strategy is planned for the period 2024-2040. Every three years, an operational plan will be developed and approved to implement the Strategy for the relevant period. It will define specific tasks, measures, those responsible for their implementation, deadlines and performance indicators.
While the legal regime of martial law is in force, indicative indicators will be used to assess implementation.
The Ministry of Social Policy, together with other authorities and stakeholders, will monitor and evaluate the results of the Strategy implementation.
Those responsible for the implementation of the plan must submit annual reports to the Ministry of Social Policy on the status of implementation of the Strategy and the action plan by 1 March and 1 September.
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