The harvest is saved: Ukraine will harvest 70 million tons, exceeding pessimistic expectations
15 August 15:19
OPINION
Leonid Kozachenko, President of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation, predicts that Ukraine’s grain and oilseed harvest in 2025 will be at least 70 million tons, despite significant losses due to lack of moisture in the east and south of the country. The expert emphasizes that the situation is better than expected at the beginning of the year due to sufficient moisture in the central, western and northern regions, but calls for the development of an irrigation strategy after the war to counteract the growing moisture deficit in the future.
In an exclusive commentary to Kommersant Ukrainsky, the agrarian analyzed in detail the current state of the harvest in Ukraine.
Less problems with the harvest than expected
“Actually, this year we will not have such big problems with the harvest as we expected at the beginning of the year, because more or less the central and western part of Ukraine, the north, received enough moisture. And the yield of crops in these regions has increased, primarily grain,”
– the expert noted.
At the same time, Kozachenko emphasized the serious challenges in the east and south of Ukraine, where the lack of moisture led to large losses.
“There are big problems in the east and south of the country, where there is a lack of moisture, there are big losses and, in fact, our agricultural enterprises will have a very difficult time in terms of their financial condition,”
– said the president of the confederation. He added that this problem can be fixed after the war is over, in particular by increasing irrigation areas.
“In the future, this problem can be fixed, but after the war is over, in order to increase the irrigation area, and we will need to develop a special strategy for the future. Because the moisture deficit will increase in the future, and this will be a problem,”
– explained the expert, emphasizing the need for long-term measures to adapt to climate change.
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Oilseeds – according to the plan, wheat a little less
As for oilseeds, Leonid Kozachenko said that no significant problems are expected. Ukraine expects to harvest at least 20 million tons, despite the global decline in production.
“We expected to harvest at least 20 million tons of oilseeds this year, and it is so. In total, we will harvest at least 70 million tons of oilseeds and grains,”
– he said.
Mr. Kozachenko also spoke about the wheat harvest, which is nearing completion. The expert expects that the wheat harvest in 2025 will be slightly lower than last year, but still exceed 20 million tons, which is a positive indicator amid regional moisture problems.
“About 90% of wheat has already been harvested – 19 million tons. Last year it was 22 million tons. I think that at least one million, maybe one and a half more will be added to this, i.e. the wheat harvest will exceed 20 million tons,”
– said the expert.
It all depends on the next two months
Leonid Kozachenko also emphasized that the final results of the harvest will depend on the weather conditions in the coming months.
“Everything will depend on the next two months, because we have harvested a little more than 60% of the crops so far, and we still need to harvest another 40%. Of course, a lot depends on the weather for the next 1.5-2 months, especially for oilseeds,” he warned,
– he warned, noting that oilseeds are the most vulnerable to weather factors at the ripening stage.
Summary
In summary, Leonid Kozachenko emphasizes the resilience of the Ukrainian agricultural sector to the challenges posed by the war and climate, but at the same time points to the need for strategic investments in irrigation to ensure future stability. Industry experts note that such forecasts will help farmers plan exports and financial activities for the coming period.
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