A jump in prices for raw milk is expected in Ukraine
13 July 2025 17:07
In early July, prices for raw milk in Ukraine remained stable, but are expected to rise amid rising prices for butter. “After the trade agreement with the EU was updated, Ukraine received expanded quotas for the export of dairy products, which contributed to the resumption of supplies and the emergence of a shortage of raw materials in the domestic market,” said Giorgi Kukhaleishvili, an analyst at the Association of Milk Producers.
This was reported by "Komersant Ukrainian" with reference to the Association of Milk Producers.
As of July 9, the average purchase price of extra-quality milk amounted to 16.00 UAH/kg excluding VAT. The range of prices for this grade on farms varies from 15.50 to 16.50 UAH/kg excluding VAT.
The highest grade costs an average of 15.75 UAH/kg excluding VAT. Prices for premium milk range from 15.30 to 16.20 UAH/kg excluding VAT.
The average price for first-class milk was 15.45 UAH/kg excluding VAT. The minimum price on farms was 15.00 UAH/kg. The maximum price was 15.60 UAH/kg.
Compared to the beginning of June 2025, prices in the middle of the price corridor, minimum and maximum prices for all three grades remained unchanged.
Accordingly, the weighted average price of the three grades amounted to 15.80 UAH/kg excluding VAT and has not changed over the past month.
Giorgi Kukhaleishvili notes that in Ukraine there is a trend towards higher prices for raw milk in the short term due to the growing demand for exchange goods supplied to Europe. The EU and Ukraine revised the trade agreement, agreeing on new quotas for the export of Ukrainian dairy products, subject to a gradual transition to EU standards by 2028. In June, after the abolition of autonomous trade measures (ATMs) and the reintroduction of quotas and duties on Ukrainian dairy products by the European Commission, dairy processing companies took a wait-and-see attitude and exported the smallest volumes of traded goods to Europe in the last five years.
However, following the negotiations, the European Commission approved the customs clearance procedure and increased quotas for Ukrainian suppliers of butter from 5 to 7 thousand tons, skimmed milk powder from 5 to 15.4 thousand tons, and canceled quotas for whole milk powder, fermented and fermented dairy products, including yogurt and kefir. As a result, Ukraine has resumed supplying dairy products to Europe, and there is even a slight shortage of raw milk on the domestic market, as there was in early July 2024. Dairy plants started looking for cheap milk.
The profitability of dairy production has improved in Ukraine, and rising butter prices are also affecting purchase prices. It is likely that in the second half of July and August, purchase prices may be revised upward if butter prices continue to rise. A factor that may restrain the demand for raw milk in Ukraine from the processing side is a decrease in cheese production and an increase in the supply of imported cheese on the domestic market. The deepening trade disputes between the US and the EU may lead to a reduction in the supply of European dairy products to the US market, accumulation of surpluses in member states, weaker prices and a decrease in interest in Ukrainian products from European buyers. However, Ukrainian companies are gradually reorienting to the markets of the Middle East and Africa.
