It’s getting cooler in Ukraine. Ukrainians are listening more and more attentively to energy specialists
1 November 2024 19:28
This year’s October is among the ten warmest in the capital since 1881 – the average monthly air temperature in October in Kyiv was 10.9°C, which is 2.3°C higher than the climate norm. These data were shared at the meteorological station of the Borys Sreznevsky Central Geophysical Observatory, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
But the warm October is over, and a cooler November is ahead. Although, apparently, not so cool as to immediately prepare for power outage schedules.
At least, according to The Weather Channel. According to its forecasts, in the first half of November, the daytime temperature, for example, in Kyiv will balance at 7-9 degrees Celsius, and at night it will be 1-2 degrees Celsius. That is, it is still a long way from the critical minus 5. And it seems too early to talk about schedules of power outages.
Ukrainians will have electricity. For now
It turns out that Volodymyr Velychko, a member of Centrenergo’s supervisory board, was clearly in a hurry when he said in his morning commentary to Interfax-Ukraine that hourly power outage schedules could begin as early as next week, along with a significant drop in temperature.
Volodymyr Velychko’s statement was quickly denied by Centrenergo, which called it a “personal opinion” of a colleague and emphasized that the determination of emergency shutdown schedules is the exclusive competence of NPC Ukrenergo. Ukrenergo also spoke out on this issue, stating that as of today, there are no grounds for introducing consumption restriction schedules for households. The company also stated that “a drop in air temperature at the beginning of next week is indeed predicted to lead to an increase in energy consumption, but whether this will require the use of blackouts (in particular, for household consumers) can only be predicted by Ukrenergo, which has not yet provided any forecasts on the use of restrictive measures.
However, these statements did not refute Mr. Velychko’s other forecasts, which do not add to the optimism of electricity consumers.
Is an increase in electricity tariffs possible?
Volodymyr Velychko, a member of the Supervisory Board of Centrenergo, explained that a significant drop in temperature for power engineers means the need to balance the power system and the need to take more substantial measures, such as emergency assistance from operators in neighboring countries. However, Volodymyr Velychko stated that due to the drop in temperature, consumption in European countries will also increase, which will lead to higher electricity prices, including due to a decrease in the share of renewable energy sources.
In his opinion, this will affect the possibilities of commercial electricity imports due to the price caps that exist on the Ukrainian spot market.
“Currently, the energy regulator NKREKP has started the procedure of revising price caps upwards, which is supported by the majority of energy market participants, and some even propose to cancel them. This is a painful topic for consumers, but it is important to understand that without an increase in price caps, commercial electricity imports will be unavailable, especially during periods of severe cold weather. Emergency assistance will be much more expensive,” said a member of the Supervisory Board of Centrenergo.
As for Centrenergo’s preparations for the winter, he said that repair and restoration works at its own TPPs are ongoing, and the company plans to connect almost 1 GW of generating capacity to the grid.
