Ukraine predicts a decline in sunflower production this year
30 June 2025 11:10
A full-scale war and unfavorable climatic conditions may lead to a decline in the gross harvest of sunflower in Ukraine in 2025. This forecast was made by Oleksandr Nechyporenko, Deputy Director for Research at the National Research Center “Institute of Agrarian Economics”, corresponding member of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences, in a commentary to "Komersant Ukrainian".
According to the scientist, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has significantly reduced the volume of sunflower crops.
“Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has led to a decrease in sunflower acreage by more than 20%. If in the pre-war period – until 2022 – an average of about 6.5 million hectares were planted, now this figure is just over 5 million hectares,” he said.
Nechyporenko emphasizes that despite consistently high yields in previous years, this year’s figures may decline due to weather factors.
“Over the past five years, sunflower yields have consistently exceeded 20 centners per hectare. At the same time, in some harvest periods, this figure reached more than 24 centners per hectare,” the expert comments.
The scientist predicts a decline in sunflower harvest volumes, probably due to deteriorating weather conditions during the growing season.
“According to the forecasts of the Institute of Agrarian Economics, this year we expect a slight decrease in the gross harvest of sunflower to about 10.5 million tons, within 3-4%. This will be primarily due to lower crop yields as a result of climatic influences,” he adds.
Thus, despite the stable yields of recent years, the sunflower production industry in Ukraine faces a double challenge in 2025 – the consequences of the war and unfavorable climatic conditions.
According to researchers, even a slight reduction in harvest could affect domestic prices and Ukraine’s export potential. Under these conditions, the industry will need a flexible adaptation strategy, both agrarian and economic.
Reference
Ukraine is among the top 5 countries in the world for sunflower production
Ukraine is the second largest sunflower producer in the world and a true pride of the Black Earth Region. In 2023/2024, the country harvested 14 million tons, despite the war and logistical difficulties.
Sunflower is grown on more than 6 million hectares of Ukrainian land. This is one of the highest figures in the world in terms of acreage.
The average yield is 30 centners per hectare. Thanks to the professionalism of farmers and modern technologies, Ukraine maintains stable production even in the face of war and climate challenges.
In 2025, the traditional regions of sunflower cultivation will remain the East and South of Ukraine, as well as the central regions, where the share of the crop in the crop rotation has already reached its maximum. Sunflower acreage is gradually increasing in the North: in Chernihiv, Sumy and Kyiv regions.
Ukraine accounts for more than 50% of global sunflower oil exports. This makes our country an indispensable player in the global agricultural market.
