Ukrenergo named several scenarios with electricity for the winter
27 June 2024 15:29
The winter of 2024-2025 will be challenging for Ukraine’s power system. The power sector is currently considering several scenarios for its passage. This was stated by Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, Chairman of the Board of NPC Ukrenergo, in an interview with hromadske, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports
“The real situation will depend on many factors, the main one being the shelling. It is impossible to predict their nature, massiveness and accuracy at the moment,” he said,
– kudrytskyi said.
According to Kudrytskyi, there are the following scenarios.
Pessimistic. It involves the continuation of massive shelling, which will cause certain energy facilities to fail. In this case, there will be less available generation in winter than envisaged in the baseline plan.
Optimistic. There will be no or few accurate enemy attacks. Ukrainian power engineers will be able to restore more energy facilities than expected under the baseline plan. This will result in fewer blackouts.
“We need to understand that there may be power cuts next winter. We need to be prepared for difficult scenarios in winter. This is better than promising people that everything will be fine and the winter will pass without blackouts, and then having to introduce them,”
– explained the head of the energy company.
The day before, DTEK CEO Dmitriy Sakharuk said that the periods of blackouts in Ukraine could increase even further in the near future. Power engineers expect Ukraine to experience peak electricity consumption in July and August.
Power cuts in Ukraine in winter: what experts predict
According to Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, Chairman of the Board of NPC Ukrenergo, Ukrainians should prepare for power cuts in winter at the household level.
“This winter may be difficult, because consumption naturally increases in winter. And even with the plans to restore generation that exist today, it is likely that we will not be able to completely eliminate the possibility of planned outages,” Kudrytskyi said.
In turn, Andriy Zakrevskyi, Deputy Director of the Association of Energy and Natural Resources of Ukraine, also voiced his view of the situation.
He said that the central and western regions of Ukraine could go through the season without power cuts, as they will receive assistance from the western border at affordable prices. However, the frontline regions, where Russia may attack the network infrastructure, may face blackouts lasting several days.
Zakrevsky is confident that a complete blackout will not happen in the country, as it will be difficult and expensive for Russians to attack the power grid. The effectiveness of Ukraine’s air defence is expected to increase by autumn 2024. However, regions such as Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Sumy, Kherson, and Odesa, which are located on the border with Russia, will continue to face major problems.
Zakrevsky also notes that some regions may suffer from a lack of heat in winter, particularly Kharkiv and Sumy, and this is a major problem alongside the lack of electricity.
