Ukrenergo warns of difficulties with the power system balance: is a blackout possible?
16 January 2024 12:11
The existing generation capacity in Ukraine’s power system will not be enough to meet all the needs of households and industry until the end of winter. However, the probability of blackout is still quite low. This was stated by Vitaliy Zaichenko, Chief Dispatcher at Ukrenergo, in an interview with Ekonomichna Pravda.
According to him, a week ago Ukraine was on the verge of imposing restrictions on electricity supply, but this was avoided.
“Yesterday [interview recorded on 11 January – ed.] we had another record of consumption since the beginning of the war. We managed to cover this record level due to three factors. Firstly, a sufficient part of the generation was restored. We switched on everything that could be switched on. Secondly, due to the warm December, there is a large flow of water along the Dnipro and Desna rivers. Yesterday was the highest ever winter electricity generation at hydroelectric power plants. Thirdly, the bad weather caused power cuts in more than a thousand settlements yesterday, which is more than 600 megawatts. If not for the blackouts, we might not have covered the entire deficit… That’s why we got through it so thinly,” said the dispatcher.
However, he argues that Ukraine will not be able to balance the power supply in this mode until the end of winter.
” We can confidently say that we will not be able to balance this way until the end of winter, because the water for hydroelectric power plants is running out. It is absolutely unrealistic to guarantee that the water resource we used yesterday will be enough until the end of winter. There are two options: restrictions or electricity imports. Today, the Cabinet of Ministers held a regular meeting to discuss electricity imports in accordance with the resolution on targeted electricity imports. If there are no imports and no emergency assistance, the only option for the dispatcher to balance the system is to introduce restrictions ,” Zaichenko said.
However, the expert believes that the probability of a major blackout is still low.
“We understand that we are at war, the aggressor is amassing missiles. We see that there are arms supplies from North Korea and Iran. It is absolutely impossible to guarantee that there will be no blackout, as the strikes may be completely different. However, if we take the risk of shelling out of the equation, I see no risk of a large-scale systemic accident,” said the Ukrenergo dispatcher.
