The cost of bread in Ukraine will increase: the expert named the reasons and gave a price forecast

11 August 17:01

The price of bread in Ukraine may rise to UAH 55 per loaf by the end of 2025. This was reported by Ivan Us, chief consultant at the National Institute for Strategic Studies (NISS), "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.

According to him, it will be a gradual rather than a sharp increase in prices that will take place over several months. The main factor that will provoke an increase in the price of bread is the rise in fuel prices. This directly affected logistics and production costs in the baking industry.

Fuel is a key cost item in logistics and production. When its price rises, it automatically affects the cost of bread. If there are no critical changes in the energy market, the increase will be smooth,” the expert noted.

The war factor as a risk of a sharp price jump

Although the baseline scenario assumes a gradual increase, a sharp rise in prices is possible if production facilities are damaged due to hostilities. Such a situation could lead to a shortage of products and, consequently, to a rapid increase in prices.

Mr. Us emphasized that, unlike some other products, no price reduction is expected for bread in the near future.

“Bread is a strategic product. Its production is sensitive to the cost of raw materials, energy, and logistics, and these factors are increasing, not decreasing, in the current environment,” he emphasized.

The Association of Bakers advises to prepare for a 20% price increase

A similar opinion is shared by the Ukrainian Bakers Association, which predicts an average 20% rise in bread prices by the end of 2025. In monetary terms, this means that even under an optimistic scenario, the cost of most types of bread will exceed UAH 50 per loaf.

According to the head of the Association, Oleksandr Taranenko, the price is affected not only by energy carriers but also by the cost of grain, flour and other ingredients, which is rising due to global trends and logistical challenges, including those related to martial law.

The selling price of 1 kg of bread from a bakery is just over UAH 40. At the same time, supermarkets’ margins on bread through various marketing mechanisms sometimes reach 30%, although by law they should not exceed 10%,” the expert said, explaining to readers the mechanism of price increases for flour products.

Rising bread prices: social consequences and risks for vulnerable groups

The rise in bread prices traditionally has a strong social impact, as it is one of the staple foods for most Ukrainians. The price increase will hit low-income families, pensioners, and IDPs the hardest, as food costs account for the largest share of the family budget.

Currently, a Ukrainian consumes 150-200 grams of bread daily, or about 5 kg per month. So, every month a Ukrainian citizen spends UAH 200-210 on bread. If the price increases by 20% in a year, a person will spend UAH 40 more on bread every month,” says the head of the Ukrainian Bakers Association.

At the same time, premium varieties and products with additional ingredients may cost much more.

In turn, economists emphasize that if inflation accelerates and bread prices continue to rise, the government will have to strengthen social support programs, in particular in the form of targeted payments or food certificates.

Is it possible to contain prices for “social” bread?

Experts believe that price increases can be contained through government support for producers in terms of compensation for energy costs, as well as improving supply chains. However, in the current environment, the priority remains to ensure stable supplies and maintain production capacity in safe regions.

Any support programs should be targeted and transparent to avoid abuse. Supporting bread producers is not only a matter of prices, but also of the country’s food security.

Bread prices in Ukraine in August 2025

According to the Ministry of Finance platform , as of August 11, 2025, Ukrainians can buy bakery products at the following prices

rumyanets loaf (sliced, 450 g) – UAH 27.90
wheat bread (sliced, 650 g) – UAH 42.99;
“Tsar Bread (sliced, 600 g)** – UAH 44.72;
riga Borodynskyi rye bread (300 g) – UAH 44.90.

Thus, the consumer price index for wheat bread in August amounted to 96.99%, which means a decrease of 3.01% compared to the previous month (in July, the index was 100.05%). This may be a result of seasonal fluctuations or stabilization of certain cost components.

Harvest – 2025: will Ukraine have enough grain to feed itself?

According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, farmers harvested almost 20 million tons of grains and pulses.

In particular

wheat – 3,713.4 thousand hectares were threshed, 14,914.1 thousand tons were harvested;
barley – 1,165.8 thou hectares were threshed, with a harvest of 4,250 thou tons
peas – 223.7 thou hectares harvested, 541.2 thou tons harvested.

In addition, farmers have already threshed 195.1 thou hectares and harvested 203.6 thou tons of other grains and legumes.

Among the leaders are:

Odesa region – 1,070.4 thou hectares harvested and 3,089.1 thou tons of grain harvested;
Kirovograd region – 521 thousand hectares harvested, 2 161.6 thousand tons harvested;
Poltava region – 361.3 thousand hectares were threshed, and 1,636.5 thousand tons were harvested.

In addition, it should not be forgotten that Ukraine is facing a grain deficit due to the fact that the occupied territories are exporting grain to Russia on a massive scale.

In the last year alone, the temporarily occupied regions provided 3% of Russia’s grain harvest. According to Reuters, in 2025, Luhansk region plans to harvest 1 million tons of grain, which is estimated at $230 million.

According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy, since the start of the full-scale war, Russia has exported at least 15 million tons of Ukrainian grain. Ukraine insists that this grain is stolen and calls on the West to impose sanctions on importers of such grain.

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Мандровська Олександра

Editor