Washington insists on a deal with Russia: expert talks about disappointing signals from the US
28 November 10:19
ANALYSIS FROM 
The United States insists that a peace agreement to end the war in Ukraine should be concluded first, and only then should the discussion of security guarantees for Kyiv begin. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced this position during a conversation with representatives of European countries.
According to Politico, citing informed sources, this demand has become the centerpiece of the American proposals that Washington has been passing on to Ukraine in recent days.
What is known about the US position and Europe’s reaction
In a conversation with European allies, Rubio assured them that President Donald Trump is ready to provide Ukraine with long-term security guarantees, which, according to Washington, should strengthen Kyiv’s sense of security. Trump also made it clear that he would not invite President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the White House until a peace agreement is signed.
At the same time, European partners are trying to assess the conflicting signals coming from the United States. According to Rubio, security guarantees for Ukraine remain an important issue and are considered separately from other elements of the negotiations.
The second European diplomat said that the United States is seeking the adoption of the entire package as soon as possible. Rubio also mentioned security guarantees during a recent meeting in Geneva, but did not disclose details or repeat his position in his communication with British and French diplomats, another source added.
The American minister also mentioned a number of issues that, in his opinion, should be resolved after the agreement is signed. In Europe, this was interpreted as a hint at discussing Ukraine’s territorial integrity and a possible solution to the issue of frozen Russian assets. The State Department denied these interpretations.
“Secretary Rubio, like the entire Trump administration, insists that security guarantees must be part of any peace agreement – and he has said so repeatedly in public and in private,” said State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott.
Spokesperson Anna Kelly added that Washington remains consistent in its position: any agreement must provide Ukraine with a real level of security and deterrence.
Trump’s plan and the issue of security guarantees
Political analyst Ihor Chalenko told "Komersant Ukrainian" that Donald Trump’s draft peace plan for Ukraine provides for security guarantees, but their content remains unclear.
“Trump’s plan includes security guarantees for Ukraine, but they are not disclosed in detail. There is also a draft appendix that refers to guarantees similar to NATO Article 5 – without Ukraine joining the Alliance,” Chalenko explained.
The political scientist noted that such provisions were allegedly initiated by the American side, but in the current political situation, it is possible that Russia could have been involved in the formation of this idea.
According to Chalenko, Ukraine’s European partners are promoting additional security proposals. French President Emmanuel Macron even announced the creation of a separate working group within the “coalition of the willing.”
“Europeans are working on their own initiatives. They are based on the position of the coalition of the willing, and it is not for nothing that Macron announced a new working group,” the expert noted.
In this context, he is concerned about the statements of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio published in Politico, which may lead to a situation where Ukraine will actually be left without security guarantees.
“If we sign an agreement without guarantees, we will simply have nothing to rely on,” he emphasized.
Chalenko emphasized that Kyiv cannot agree to any restrictions on the number or capabilities of its Armed Forces.
“We insist that there can be no reduction of the defense forces in the peace agreement. It is unacceptable to restrict Ukraine’s own army under the signature of Russia,” the expert said.
He also mentioned the preservation of the defense industry and the capabilities of Ukrainian weapons as such “red lines”.
The risk of losing security guarantees and the threat of new Russian aggression
The political scientist warns that postponing security guarantees “for later” may indicate the unwillingness of the United States to end the war on fair terms or even the risk of Ukraine’s gradual “surrender” to Russian influence.
“If we do not offer real security guarantees, then all these phrases about ‘selling Ukraine to Russia’ may become a reality. This cannot be allowed,” he emphasized.
Chalenko is convinced that the United States and European partners still hear the Ukrainian position, despite the complexity of the negotiation process.
“Diplomacy is more complicated than it looks in the media. But there are points from which we cannot retreat – this is the issue of Ukraine’s future,” the political scientist said.
He also noted that Donald Trump does not have a fixed position, which means that his approach can be influenced.
Doubtful proposals for new US guarantees
The political analyst also commented on a new American document with three points, which provides for the possibility of the US and its allies using force in the event of a repeated Russian offensive.
“I do not believe in such guarantees. Under no circumstances will Washington go to war with Russia, as both Biden and Trump have repeatedly shown,” Chalenko said.
He added that the 10-year term looks doubtful, as Trump’s term will last only until 2029, while Putin plans to remain in power until at least 2036.
A different approach is needed: EU funding and participation in international missions
Chalenko believes that instead we should talk about:
- deepening Ukraine’s integration with the European Union;
- co-financing of the Armed Forces of Ukraine;
- participation of the Ukrainian military in international security operations after the end of the war.
“The deployment of Ukrainian troops in the Baltic States after the war is one of the most effective options. This is a demonstration of our defense capabilities,” he said.
Security guarantees should be part of a peace agreement with Russia
In conclusion, the political scientist emphasized that all guarantees should be agreed upon within a “coalition of the willing” so that Russia could not accuse the West of collusion.
“All security decisions should be in a package with peace agreements. Ukraine has to ensure a lasting peace – after Trump’s term, too,” Chalenko emphasized.
European concerns
Despite official assurances, Europe is noticing a gradual shift in the US position from unequivocal support for Ukraine to a more detached approach in the negotiations. According to two European diplomats, Rubio explained that Washington cannot act as a completely neutral mediator because it continues to provide Kyiv with weapons and at the same time maintains sanctions against Russia.
A Ukrainian government official, in turn, noted that Kyiv has not received signals that the Trump administration is ready to increase its support. European diplomats fear that Washington’s current course may eventually shift in a direction more favorable to Moscow.
