Washington is changing the rules of the game: military aid to Ukraine is now under a new scheme
18 June 14:40
U.S. officials are making vague promises about further military support for Ukraine. Washington is less and less inclined to provide weapons, because, according to Defense Secretary Pete Hagel, the Donald Trump administration has a different vision of the war than the current Joe Biden team.
According to The Telegraph, the United States is in favor of a “negotiated peaceful settlement,” which it believes will be in the interests of both sides.
Is it possible to cut off US aid to Ukraine?
The United States has long wanted the burden of the war between Ukraine and Russia to fall more heavily on the shoulders of its European allies rather than on Washington. During the discussion of the US defense budget for 2026, it was made clear that America wants to see a more active role for the EU in supplying weapons.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, upon learning of a possible reduction in U.S. military aid, expressed hope that these statements were not final.
Since 2022, the United States has provided Ukraine with about $74 billion in military aid. The aid packages included systems such as Patriot, HIMARS, ATACMS missiles, M777 long-range artillery, tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery ammunition.
Most of this support came during Biden’s presidency. However, there is now a risk that Ukraine could lose its main strategic partner.
In such a situation, Kyiv would have to rely on European assistance, either by purchasing American weapons with funds provided by European countries or even by setting up its own arms production at domestic plants with EU financial support.
On the positive side, European leaders have repeatedly promised to take on more responsibility. However, in practice, Europe declares support rather than realizes it.
In March, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas proposed to allocate 40 billion euros for weapons to Ukraine. But this plan was blocked by Hungary, Slovakia, Croatia, Spain, and Italy.
Nevertheless, the EU did provide 1 billion euros from the Peace Fund, which receives money, in particular, from confiscated Russian assets. This money can be used for arms production in Ukraine. Today, domestic production already covers about 50% of the needs of the Armed Forces. Moreover, in some areas, Ukraine is even ahead of the EU, for example, in the production of certain types of weapons.
Some Ukrainian equipment demonstrates better performance than foreign counterparts, as it is better adapted to the specific needs of the frontline. For example, the Limma electronic warfare system has shown greater effectiveness in neutralizing Russian bombs than Western or Russian counterparts.
In general, according to the publication, Ukraine has the technical potential to develop powerful weapons. However, it still needs external assistance to purchase ammunition, spare parts, and other equipment. The most acute problem is the lack of personnel in the army.
The issue of arms re-export: no deliveries without US approval
Political scientist and military analyst Dmitry Snegirev explained in an exclusive commentary for "Komersant Ukrainian" how Washington influences the supply of Western weapons to Ukraine, even when direct aid packages are put on hold. According to the expert, claims about the curtailment of support are exaggerated and often manipulative.
“In addition to direct deliveries, there is the concept of military-technical cooperation in the format of re-export,” Snegiryov said. “That is, the transfer of weapons that are available to other countries but manufactured in the United States is possible only with the permission of the American government,” Snegiryov said.
That is why, according to the expert, the transfer of Abrams tanks from Australia was delayed for more than a year.
“We have been waiting for them for a year and a half. It was only after Donald Trump’s political activism, for example, after his phone conversation with Putin, that the issue of re-export was lifted from the pause,” the analyst emphasizes.
Questions also arose around F-16 aircraft. Denmark had previously stated that deliveries would be possible no earlier than 2026. But the situation has changed.
“After several key political signals – in particular from the United States – the Netherlands and Denmark announced an acceleration of the schedule. The Netherlands has already transferred the full planned package, and Denmark will complete the transfer by the end of 2025,” Snegirev says.
Another example of expanded military assistance is the transfer of missiles to the Patriot system. Snegiryov cites figures:
“Germany recently handed over 150 missiles to Ukraine for the Patriot system. This is much more than during the Biden administration, when it was about 50 units. The cost of one missile is from 3 to 8 million dollars, depending on the modification. That is, half a billion dollars in total,” the military expert says.
Military and technical expansion – through allies
Although Washington officially refrains from direct action, the United States actively supports arms transfers through third countries.
“The US has actually given the green light to all our partners to transfer all types of weapons. And this is an expansion of cooperation, not a curtailment,” emphasizes Snegiryov.
US assistance has not stopped – the delivery mechanism is changing
Roman Svitan, a retired colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, military expert and pilot-instructor, also said in a conversation with KU journalists that the current situation with US aid is not a cessation of aid, but the completion of one of the budgetary stages. According to the expert, Ukraine is moving to a new model of cooperation with the United States in the field of military procurement.
“This is not a termination of aid. This is the completion of the amount that the US Congress allocated last year for the supply of equipment for Ukraine,” says Roman Svitan. New ones have not yet been allocated. So nothing critical has happened,” reassures Roman Svitan.
According to the expert, the United States no longer plans to provide Ukraine with free military ammunition. However, alternative ways of supply have already been launched – through procurement, including with the participation of international partners.
“We are now switching to a different mechanism: direct procurement, including with American suppliers, at the expense of the Ukrainian budget,” Svitan said.
Ukraine is not limited to just one option. Among the possible approaches are prepayment, postpayment, or even deferred payment procurement. The Ukrainian government is currently deciding which model will be chosen.
“There are many procurement mechanisms. Land lease is also one of them, when payment is made in decades,” the expert explains.
According to experts, the so-called sharp decline in direct supplies from the United States does not mean a curtailment of support, but rather the completion of the previous budget and the transition to new formats of cooperation, including re-exports and procurement on partnership terms.
