From vegetables to meat: when will prices in stores rise due to exchange rates and fuel costs?
14 March 15:11
The conflict in the Middle East has led to rising fuel prices and currency fluctuations around the world. The Ukrainian agricultural sector’s heavy reliance on imports will inevitably affect food prices as early as this year.
Read the overview to find out how fuel costs and exchange rate fluctuations are affecting retail prices and which products will see price hikes first, reports [Komersant] with reference to RBC-Ukraine.
The currency factor
The conflict in the Middle East is affecting exchange rates not only in Ukraine but around the world. Against the backdrop of global instability, the dollar is strengthening, while the euro and the hryvnia are falling against it, notes economist Oleg Pendzin.
The dollar exchange rate in Ukraine has already reached a historic high, surpassing the 44 hryvnia mark. Due to rising fuel prices, importers of petroleum products have begun actively purchasing currency on the interbank market to pay for new contracts. At the same time, citizens have also begun actively buying foreign currency, which is putting additional pressure on the exchange rate in Ukraine.
Such exchange rate fluctuations will be particularly noticeable in sectors heavily reliant on imported goods and components. Since Ukraine imports a large volume of goods, including fuel, energy, and agricultural products, prices for these items will rise as the national currency depreciates.
What affects food prices (RBC-Ukraine infographic)
Expectations regarding food prices
The current spikes in fuel prices will not significantly affect the price of the 2025 harvest, says Pendzin. The finished product is already fully produced and in warehouses, so no major impact on its price is expected at this time, the expert explains.
Price increases will occur in the logistics segment from warehouse to store, as carriers have already raised their service rates. However, there is no need to worry too much about these specific costs, says Pendzin.
“Product delivery is included in the wholesale markup, which covers various categories of business expenses. The share of expenses specifically for fuel and lubricants is small there,” he adds.
The 2026 harvest, which Ukrainians will consume as early as the first half of this year, will have a significant impact on prices. Spring fieldwork is now beginning, requiring large amounts of fuel, which will be factored into the cost of the final product.
In addition, as noted by UCAB analyst Maksym Hopka, the Ukrainian agricultural sector is highly dependent on imported inputs. Rising oil prices trigger a chain reaction, leading to higher costs not only for fuel but also for seeds, fertilizers, plant protection products, packaging, and spare parts for machinery.
“Thanks to contracts signed in advance and existing stockpiles, farmers have a certain time buffer that temporarily mitigates a sharp price spike. However, if energy prices continue to rise, this will inevitably affect the cost of the future harvest,” noted Maksym Hopka.
The impact of currency and fuel on food prices (infographic by RBC-Ukraine)
What will rise in price first
Fruits and vegetables react most quickly to exchange rate fluctuations and logistics costs due to their high turnover rate and high share of imports, says the UCAB analyst. Therefore, any increase in logistics, insurance, or fuel costs, as well as fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate, are passed on to store shelves much faster than in goods with a “long” processing chain.
The meat market reacts with a delay. Here, producers often have stockpiles and pre-existing contracts, so the reaction to price increases can take 1–3 months. However, if fuel prices remain consistently high, this pressure becomes systemic.
Currently, high meat supply in the domestic market is holding back rapid price growth, but price increases may become noticeable closer to Easter, the analyst explains.
Prices for dairy products also react to external factors with a delay. However, they differ in the need to maintain an uninterrupted “cold chain.” If fuel prices rise sharply, the costs of collecting, transporting milk, and distributing finished products will also go up, warned Maksym Hopka.
Which products will become more expensive first (RBC-Ukraine infographic)
Why food prices rise in the spring
Traditionally, in the spring, last year’s stocks of staple vegetables and fruits begin to run low, produce spoils, and long-term storage of the harvest in warehouses increases the costs of maintaining storage facilities, which inevitably affects their final price.
Since there is no mass harvest from open fields in the spring yet, retail chains rely on early imports or domestic greenhouse produce, the cost of which is high due to significant expenses for heating and lighting. This creates a noticeable seasonal price spike in the vegetable category.
Additionally, Gopka notes, preparations for Easter traditionally trigger a short-term rush for eggs, meat, cheese, and baking ingredients. The combination of high seasonal logistics costs due to the planting season and holiday demand allows retailers to set higher prices, which is why these product groups always show the most noticeable price increases in the spring.
