Lack of rain threatens harvest in Europe. Poland and Ukraine are at risk
15 April 15:06
Central and Eastern European countries lack April rains, which could create problems for supply chains and farmers, and ultimately significantly affect the global grain market. Politico writes about this, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
The European Drought Observatory reports that since mid-March, some areas of Poland, Ukraine, Greece, the Balkans, Sweden, Ireland, Germany and other countries have been in the orange warning zone, while a red alert has already been declared on the southeastern coast of Spain.
According to Andrea Toreti, a leading expert at the observatory, the lack of precipitation combined with abnormally warm weather – and last month the continent had its hottest March on record – is causing the current drought.
“The situation we are witnessing is of some concern. This is especially true for Central and Eastern Europe, as “the precipitation deficit has been accumulating there over the past 60-80 days,” the expert says.
According to him, the current conditions are reminiscent of those before the devastating drought in Europe in 2018, and the coming weeks will be critical.
“If there is no rain in the near future, we expect serious consequences, for example, for agriculture,” said Andrea Toreti, a leading expert at the European Observatory.
Poland and Ukraine are the most at risk
The weather situation in Central and Eastern Europe is particularly difficult, as the dry winter did not give the soil a chance to recover from last year’s drought. Poland and Ukraine, which are the world’s leading grain exporters, may be the most affected.
“A potentially poor grain season as a result of severe drought could have a significant impact on the global grain market,” said agricultural expert Klaas Nendel.
He outlined his assessment in a document distributed by the German Meteorological Service in early April. The expert warns of the danger of a “dry year” for the region, which is often called the breadbasket of Europe.
What are the forecasts for the Ukrainian wheat harvest?
On April 10, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) published an updated global forecast of the balance of major crops for the 2024/25 marketing year.
According to the USDA forecasts, Ukraine’s wheat and corn production volumes for 2024/25 remain unchanged: 23.4 mln tons and 26.8 mln tons, respectively.
At the same time, the volume of wheat exports will increase by 0.5 mln tonnes to 16.0 mln tonnes, while corn exports will remain at the same level – 22.0 mln tonnes.
What about the current exports of Ukrainian grains
As of April 14, Ukraine has exported 33.894 mln tonnes of grains and pulses since the beginning of 2024-2025 marketing year (July 2024 – June 2025), including 1.07 mln tonnes of exports in the current month. This was reported by the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, citing data from the State Customs Service.
According to the report, as of April 17 last year, the total shipments amounted to 38.608 million tons.
It is noted that in terms of crops, since the beginning of the current season, 13.423 million tons of wheat have been exported (300 thousand tons in April), 2.242 million tons of barley (25 thousand tons), 10.8 thousand tons of rye (0), and 17.718 million tons of corn (741 thousand tons).
