The war between the US, Israel, and Iran: how rising oil prices could affect Ukraine
3 March 15:02
ANALYSIS FROM 
Global oil prices have risen due to the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, which has heightened fears of a possible energy shortage and a new round of inflation.
This was reported by Reuters, among others, writes
In particular, the price of Brent crude rose 6.4% to $77.57 per barrel, and during trading, the price briefly exceeded $82. US crude oil also added 6.2%, rising to $71.17 per barrel.
Gold, which investors traditionally view as a “safe haven,” also rose in price, increasing by 1.6% to $5,360 per ounce.
It is worth noting that the focus of the markets was on the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime corridor through which approximately one-fifth of the world’s maritime oil supplies and about 20% of liquefied natural gas are transported. Although traffic through the strait has not been formally suspended, vessel tracking services are recording a buildup of tankers on both sides — shipowners are wary of attacks or are facing difficulties in insuring voyages.
According to Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, the most significant impact on the oil market could be an actual blockade of shipments through the strait, which could deprive global markets of up to 15 million barrels of crude oil per day. Prolonged high oil prices could reignite inflationary pressures in the global economy. This would effectively increase costs for businesses and consumers and could dampen demand.
Meanwhile, OPEC countries have agreed to a moderate increase in production—by 206,000 barrels per day in April. However, a significant portion of the additional raw materials will still have to be transported by tankers from the Middle East.
The jump in oil prices also affected the currency market: the US dollar benefited the most, as the United States is a net exporter of energy and US government bonds are traditionally considered a reliable asset in times of instability. Against this backdrop, the euro fell by 0.2% to $1.1787.
What is happening with oil prices now
Escalation in the Middle East could trigger a further jump in oil prices in the near future. This was stated in an exclusive comment for
“Oil will rise, and it will rise primarily because there is an extremely dangerous situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has attacked tankers. Formally, the strait is not blocked, but it must be understood that in order to leave the Persian Gulf and enter the world’s oceans, ships must pass through Hormuz. This accounts for about 30% of global oil traffic,” the expert explained.
According to him, after Iran’s statements about the threat to shipping, insurance companies sharply increased their rates, and some of them refused to insure voyages through the region altogether.
“This has already had a serious impact on global prices. Oil is rising very quickly, and I think that next week we could see prices above $80 per barrel,” Pendzin predicts.
The economist also drew attention to Iran’s attacks on energy facilities in other countries in the region.
“Iran has already struck Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the largest oil refineries. In addition, Qatar has also been affected, which is a loss of about 20% of the global liquefied gas market,” he said.
According to the expert, liquefied gas prices in Europe have already risen by about 30%, and the upward trend will continue.
Consequences for Ukraine: additional income for Russia and the role of China
The expert separately emphasized the risks for Ukraine.
“There are two negative aspects. The first is the sharp rise in world oil prices, which automatically means additional revenue for the Russian budget. The second is the increase in China’s purchases of Russian oil,” he explained.
According to Pendzin, China imports about 11.5 million barrels of oil per day. Previously, a significant part of the supply was provided by Iran, which was under sanctions and produced about 3.5 million barrels per day — and Beijing bought almost all of it.
“Now Iran is forced to reduce production due to military pressure. We are already seeing an increase in China’s purchases of Russian oil. This means that Russia is getting both a higher price and a larger volume of sales,” the economist concluded.
In his opinion, if the conflict continues to escalate, the oil market will remain unstable, and prices will tend to rise further.
What preceded it
At the beginning of the year, many experts predicted that oil prices would fall to $55 per barrel due to an expected supply surplus. The reason was to be increased production in the Persian Gulf countries and other regions, coupled with weak demand. As The Economist notes, in early February, the International Energy Agency expected that in 2026, the surplus of raw materials would reach an average of 3.7 million barrels per day.
However, a new wave of tension in the Middle East has effectively changed these forecasts. Despite this, the situation does not yet appear critical. After a sharp jump at the start of trading on Monday — the first working day after the strikes on Iran — prices fell slightly and stabilized at around $79 per barrel.
Sol Cavonik, head of energy research at MST Marquee, told the BBC that the market is not showing any signs of panic at the moment. According to him, investors have seen that oil production and transportation facilities have not yet become the main targets of the parties to the conflict.
Robin Mills, head of Dubai-based consulting firm Qamar Energy, who previously worked at Shell, noted that since traders are closely following the news, sharp fluctuations in prices are to be expected. At the same time, current prices are still lower than two years ago, so it is premature to talk about a full-blown oil crisis.
An additional restraining factor was the OPEC alliance’s decision to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day to partially offset the possible shortage and prevent excessive price increases. However, in the event of a large-scale conflict, even these measures may prove insufficient.
Why the Strait of Hormuz is strategically important
The Strait of Hormuz is a key route for energy exports from the Middle East. Up to 20% of global oil and liquefied gas supplies are transported through it every day. It is noteworthy that it was not blocked even during the Iran-Iraq war.
Any disruptions in this region could affect not only oil but also the petroleum products market. In 2025, about 9% of the world’s gas oil supplies and about 18% of aviation fuel passed through the strait.
Iran says shipping continues, but at the same time reported attacks on three oil tankers — British and American. According to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the ships were hit by missiles and caught fire. There have been no official comments from the US and Britain yet.
The British Maritime Trade Operations Center reported that two ships were directly hit, and an unknown projectile exploded near the third. Crews were advised to pass through the area with extreme caution.
As a result, many tankers are temporarily avoiding passage through the strait: about 150 ships remain in the Persian Gulf, not daring to enter Hormuz.
Some carriers are changing their routes. In particular, Danish shipping giant Maersk has announced the suspension of voyages through this region and is directing ships to bypass Africa via the Cape of Good Hope.
The rise in insurance costs, logistical complications, and higher oil prices are collectively putting additional pressure on the prices of end oil products, particularly fuel.
