War and foreign policy: what will change for Ukraine this year?
7 January 2025 15:22
ANALYSIS
the year 2025 promises to be a decisive year for Ukraine in the context of the war with Russia. Forecasts of strategic directions, possible military operations, and defense policy show that the Ukrainian army has great potential to liberate the occupied territories, but will also face numerous challenges.
At the same time, the threat from Russia will remain relevant, especially in the East and South of Ukraine, where localized offensives and attempts to break through defense lines are likely to continue. Military actions are likely to be focused on the defense of important industrial regions, as well as on strengthening control over critical infrastructure facilities.
How does Ukraine plan to counter Russia’s offensive, what role do its allies play in this, and what tactics will be used to protect important strategic territories – this was the subject of "Komersant Ukrainian" analysis.
Political analyst Oleg Sahakyan in an exclusive commentary for
War and foreign policy: can we expect changes?
according to Oleg Sahakyan, 2025 will be no less tense than the previous years. He believes that there will be an attempt to intensify diplomatic processes on the foreign front, but questions remain open.
“This year will not bring a clear result, but it will be critical for possible negotiations with Russia. We will face the risk of intensifying the process of peace talks, although their effectiveness will depend on whether the Trump team tries to continue the proven process and does not lose this chance. As practice shows, Russia is trying to imitate the process, but it is important that we do not lose focus on the real result,”
– said the political scientist.
Sahakyan believes that Ukraine should remain steadfast in the negotiations, even if they are delayed. He notes that without strengthening defense capabilities and external support, victory in the war remains doubtful. However, the possibility of victory through diplomacy is also unlikely due to Russia’s refusal to accept peace agreements.
Domestic situation: reforms and social stability
According to the expert, domestic policy in 2025 will require serious reforms in public administration, as previous models, including manual control, no longer meet the requirements of the times.
“The model of manual control has long since exhausted itself. In times of war, it may have been the only way to keep the country functioning, but now it is becoming increasingly problematic. Without proper reforms in the governance system, such as reforming the Armed Forces and the social system, it will be difficult for us to overcome not only external but also internal challenges,”
– emphasizes Sahakyan.
He also notes that the lack of reforms in key areas such as the economy, social benefits and taxation system could lead to social conflicts and political destabilization within the country.
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Election forecast: should we expect elections in 2025?
Oleg Sahakyan believes that the probability of holding elections in Ukraine in 2025 is extremely low. In his opinion, in the event of an extraordinary development of the situation, elections can take place only in two cases: if the war ends unexpectedly or if internal political conflicts in Ukraine reach a critical point.
“I believe that the probability of holding elections in Ukraine in 2025 is extremely low. This will probably only be possible in the event of significant internal political changes or, as an exception, in the event of an unexpected end to the war,”
– he says.
According to the political scientist, if the situation in Ukraine does not change significantly, the elections will probably be postponed to 2026 or even later.
Sahakyan also says that Russia may face serious internal economic and social problems in 2025. He predicts that Russia will begin to experience stagnation before mid-2025, which could affect its ability to wage war and withstand international pressure on the Kremlin.
Despite the difficult forecasts, Sahakyan is confident that 2025 will be the year when Ukraine can begin to move towards greater stability, but only if internal reforms and external support are maintained. He emphasizes the importance of maintaining unity and mobilizing resources to deal with challenges that will not disappear in the near future. Ukrainians should prepare for a long struggle, both on the political and social fronts.
What can Ukraine expect militarily?
Military expert Roman Svitan in a conversation with
Roman Svitan notes that the key factor in fulfilling defense tasks will be the amount of equipment and ammunition received from international partners. In particular, 50 billion euros and 60 billion dollars allocated for 2025 should be used to provide the army with equipment, missiles, and other means.
“If we get at least two aviation brigades consisting of 80 aircraft, as well as missiles for these aircraft and for the missile operators, we can start liberating Crimea next year,”
– the expert emphasized.
At the same time, Svitan believes that we should not expect large-scale counteroffensive operations in Donbas this year. The main focus should be on creating a professional, motivated army capable of performing defense tasks and ensuring the liberation of Ukrainian territories.
Forecast for the East and South of Ukraine
Svitan drew attention to the difficult situation in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Russian troops are likely to continue to put pressure on these regions, trying to seize territories, in particular, south of Sievierodonetsk and west of Pokrovsk. At the same time, the expert noted that this year there is a high probability of another round of fighting around such cities as Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Sloviansk.
Regarding Zaporizhzhia region, the expert assumes that the tactics of Russian forces will be to try to create small bridgeheads on the right bank of the Dnipro River, but no serious success in capturing new territories is expected.
“This year, Russia will not be able to force the Dnipro River in an operational mode. There may be only local attempts in several districts, but they will not be strategically successful,”
– he summarized.
Defending big cities
One of the biggest challenges, according to Svitan, is to protect large Ukrainian cities, such as Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Sumy, from Russian attacks. The problem is that Russian troops have precision air assets that can cause significant damage. Therefore, the main task is to increase the density of Ukrainian air defense, in particular, with the help of modern anti-aircraft missile systems.
“We should not expect the shelling to decrease significantly, but over time we will be able to reduce the effectiveness of these attacks by strengthening air defense and aviation,”
– Svitan noted.
In general, the military expert believes that 2025 will be critical for the further development of the war with Russia. Defense tasks will be completed, and if international partners provide the necessary supplies, Ukraine will be able to start liberating Crimea. At the same time, the main goal for this year will be to strengthen defense positions and restore controlled territories in eastern and southern Ukraine.
Thus, 2025 will be a crucial year for Ukraine not only on the political but also on the military front. On the one hand, the struggle for the liberation of the occupied territories continues at the front, and on the other hand, without deep internal reforms, the country may face political and social destabilization. A key factor in achieving victory will be maintaining international support, strengthening defense positions, and implementing structural changes in public administration.
Author: Darina Glushchenko
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