The war will last for another 12 years: a forecast from the leader of the Revolution on Granite
7 October 17:45
OPINION
Russia’s war with Ukraine could last at least another 12 years. Such a forecast was made by historian and president of the Center for Research on Political Values Oles Doniy on his official Facebook page, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
According to him, the calculation is based on a biological and mathematical analysis that takes into account the age of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“When I made the forecast three and a half years ago, he was 70. Based on average life expectancy, I assumed that he could live to be 100. I divided the difference between these figures – 30 years – by two to get a weighted average, that is, 15 years of possible continuation of the war,” Doniy explained.
The forecast is updated annually
According to the expert’s own methodology, the forecast is updated annually. If 3.5 years ago the expected duration of the war was 15 years, now, according to the author’s calculations, there are 12 years left.
“As long as Putin is alive, the war will not end,” said Oles Doniy.
He also emphasized that he does not pin his hopes on any foreign policy initiatives, including former US President Donald Trump’s attempts to reach an agreement with the Kremlin.
Reaction of society and politicians
Doniy admits that his assessments are unpopular in the public space.
This scenario is unpleasant to discuss in the media and society because it means a continuation of the current situation – no elections, restrictions on freedom of movement, closed borders. For most citizens, this is a difficult and unpleasant topic,” he explained.
In his opinion, maintaining the state of war for a long period of time actually means a gradual erosion of democratic institutions in Ukraine. At the same time, according to the analyst, democracy remains a true value only for a smaller part of Ukrainian society.
Read also: When will the war in Ukraine end: new IMF forecast
How long and when will Russia’s war with Ukraine end: context
Previously, a number of Ukrainian and international experts have repeatedly made predictions about the possible timing of the end of the war. In 2022-2023, some politicians and military officials suggested that the fighting could end within a few months or by the end of the year.
However, some analysts warned that the conflict would be long-lasting and depend primarily on political changes in Russia itself.
Even Oles Doniy himself emphasizes that his assessment is not based on political assumptions, but on a logical model where the decisive factor is the life expectancy of the Russian leader.
Oles (Oleksandr Serhiyovych) Doniy is a Ukrainian politician, publicist, journalist, cultural manager and former member of the Ukrainian parliament.
He graduated from the Faculty of History at Taras Shevchenko University of Kyiv. While studying, he became actively involved in the student movement – in 1989 he became one of the leaders of the Kyiv student community, and in 1990 he co-organized and participated in the “Revolution on Granite” (the first mass civil protest in independent Ukraine).
In the early 2000s, Doniy was actively involved in public and political activities, and founded a number of cultural and educational initiatives, including the Center for the Study of Political Values.
In 2007, he was elected as a Member of Parliament of Ukraine of the VI convocation on the list of the Our Ukraine – People’s Self-Defense bloc. In the Parliament, he worked in the Committee on Culture and Spirituality.
In the Verkhovna Rada, he spoke from the position of the national democratic camp, defending the rights of national minorities, the development of Ukrainian culture and freedom of speech. At the same time, he has repeatedly criticized both the government and the opposition for political populism and the lack of a systematic state policy.
Doniy is known for organizing artistic and cultural projects aimed at developing Ukrainian identity. One of the most famous is the Humanitarian Strategies Project, which brought together researchers, philosophers, and artists to discuss social values.
He is also the author of analytical publications and commentaries in the leading Ukrainian media, and acts as a political expert and cultural critic.
Doniy consistently advocates building a national democracy based on freedom, cultural self-sufficiency and self-respect of citizens. In his speeches, he emphasizes the importance of value-based politics, i.e. the return of the moral dimension to public administration.
In the 2010s, he publicly opposed the usurpation of power by Viktor Yanukovych and supported the Euromaidan. Since 2014, he has been engaged in educational and analytical activities, focusing on issues of Ukrainian identity, historical memory, and societal values.
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