The War in Ukraine: Will the Spring of 2025 Bring Peace?
13 February 19:06
US President Donald Trump announced the start of direct talks with Russia to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. A number of foreign publications, including the Financial Times, have already written that a ceasefire in Ukraine is likely to be reached either on April 20 (Easter) or May 9 (Victory Day in Russia).
To understand the situation and get an answer to the question “Should Ukrainians wait for the end of [the war],” Kommersant spoke with political scientist Vladimir Tsybulko.
The war in Ukraine and negotiations with Russia: what the Financial Times article says
The media outlet emphasized that European officials have expressed fears that their role in peace negotiations in Ukraine will be minimized and that they will be responsible for rebuilding Ukraine and ensuring security after a possible peace agreement.
Instead, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized the need for Ukraine to participate in any negotiations, rejecting the possibility of bilateral discussions without his country’s participation. European leaders, including European Council President Antonio Costa, emphasized that successful peace talks require the participation of both Ukraine and the European Union. They hope to learn more about Trump’s plans at the upcoming Munich Security Conference.
In the meantime, European diplomats are having difficulty establishing direct contact with the Trump administration about this peace plan.
Should Ukraine expect peace in the spring of 2025: an expert’s answer
Volodymyr Tsybulko believes that the end of hostilities in Ukraine now largely depends on Chinese President Xi Jinping, whom the Kremlin invited to visit Russia on May 9, when the country will celebrate the 80th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany.
“It seems to me that Xi Jinping agreed to this visit as an incentive to stop the fighting. Therefore, in order to avoid unpleasant surprises, Xi Jinping will most likely simply demand that all this (fighting – ed.) should subside by Easter, otherwise he will not make a decision,” explains Tsybulko.
The political scientist notes that the problem also lies in the fact that the Chinese leader has to balance between Russia and the United States, and the politician is now afraid that Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump will “abandon” him.
“Xi has to do everything she can to be Trump’s favorite wife,” the expert says.
Do you think this ceasefire will be short-lived? When should we expect a full-fledged peace?
According to the political scientist, Russian President Vladimir Putin can “get a pleasant and acceptable result for himself in this situation.”
“Because he still has some pathology on the topic of Zelensky. They considered him… well, they contributed to his election in every way possible because they considered him a little bit of a slur. But it turned out that even Ukraine, which, according to Russian officials and the top echelon, is a little bit of a flawed country, turned out to be a country with quite stable institutions. And even Zelensky did not destroy it, as they expected. That is why we now hear Putin’s statements that there is nothing to talk about with Zelensky,” says Volodymyr Tsybulko.
The expert suggested that, speaking of the start of the negotiation process, US President Donald Trump has already decided to “trade Zelensky.”
“That is, we are talking about the following: the cessation of hostilities, the election campaign, and only then deep and long-term agreements with the participation of Ukraine and the European Union. At the same time, Putin cannot yet come to terms with the idea that representatives of the European Union, including, for example, Poland or Sweden, which he hates, will sit at the table,” the political scientist explained.
How the world reacted to the US initiative to start the negotiation process
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has already criticized the US decision to make preliminary concessions to Russia on Ukraine’s NATO membership and territorial losses before peace talks begin.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that an agreement to end the war in Ukraine should not be imposed on Kyiv, emphasizing that “peace dictated from the outside will not work.”
French Defense Minister Sébastien Le Coronneu warned against “peace through weakness” and emphasized the importance of “peace through strength.”
European states, including the United Kingdom, France and Germany, expressed their commitment to Ukraine’s independence and integrity, emphasizing that negotiations should include Ukraine.
russia welcomed the new approach of the US administration, noting the mutual political will for peace.
At the same time, Ukraine remains determined to restore its borders by 2014, despite the ongoing occupation of its territories by Russia.
Against this backdrop, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hagel denied accusations of betraying Ukraine, saying that Trump is “the best negotiator on the planet.”
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