Will the war end in 2024? Politicians and experts’ response to Dmitry Gordon’s theory
16 July 2024 18:29
ЕКСКЛЮЗИВ
Journalist and presenter Dmytro Gordon believes that the war in Ukraine will end in 2024, and Crimea will be de-occupied within the next five months.
“I’m not Wang, I’m not Arestovich, I’m not a prophet, clairvoyant or a person with any extraordinary abilities at all. [….] I get my information from many sources. I think out loud and say that I think the war will end this year. I think Crimea will fall within five months,” journalist Dmitry Gordon.
The journalist relies on sources in the country’s leadership, Western countries at a very high level, Russian telegram channels, the world press, as well as sources in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In particular, according to Gordon’s insights, Russia handed over a secret plan to resolve the war to the United States. The documents were brought by Russian Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev during his visit to the United States on 26-27 June. The official purpose of his visit was a summit of police chiefs from UN member states.
According to Dmitry Gordon, thekey points of the war settlement plan include Ukraine’s complete withdrawal from Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the transfer of Zaporizhzhya NPP and Energodar to Ukraine, the enshrining of non-aligned status in the Constitution of Ukraine, the definition of Crimea as a “special demilitarised administrative territory with dual subordination to Ukraine and Russia, Russia’s readiness to discuss the transfer of the entire territory of Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions to Ukraine and a ceasefire on the contact line after the start of ceasefire negotiations.
Who is Kolokoltsev and did he really pass a secret plan to end the war to the US?
According to Dmitry Gordon, thekey points of the war settlement plan include Ukraine’s complete withdrawal from Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the transfer of Zaporizhzhia NPP and Enerhodar to Ukraine, the enshrining of non-aligned status in the Constitution of Ukraine, the definition of Crimea as a “special demilitarised administrative territory with dual subordination to Ukraine and Russia, Russia’s readiness to discuss the transfer of the entire territory of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions to Ukraine and a ceasefire on the contact line after the start of ceasefire negotiations.
Abbas Galliamov, a political strategist and former speechwriter for Putin, denies that the secret plan was handed over. He explains that two weeks before Kolokoltsev’s visit to the US and before the NATO summit in Washington, Putin himself announced his conditions for ending the war.
“If he [Kolokoltsev – ed.] had conveyed the comfortable conditions for Ukraine that Gordon is talking about – in particular, with the story of Crimea – then why would Putin have raised the bar? And any lowering of the bar will be perceived as “well, are you deflated? You don’t want Mykolaiv to be part of the administrative borders of Russia anymore, don’t you want Kherson back? “, – Abbas Gyallamov
A change in Putin’s rhetoric will be perceived as his defeat and weakness, Galliamov is sure. And what Gordon said is rather the work of the collective, unconscious.
“Everyone is tired of the war. Such rumours appear against the backdrop of a collective desire to end it. And so we are trying to analyse a complex socio-political reality, the facts of which can be interpreted in different ways. You want Putin to turn out to be not a complete idiot, but to wake up the voice of reason and lower his standards.” – Abbas Gyalimov
The end of the war: is it possible to de-occupy Crimea in the coming months?
Military experts do not believe in the voluntary transfer of Crimea. Co-chairman of the civil initiative “The Right Stuff” Dmytro Snegirev specially for
“Without suppressing the missile defence system, it makes no sense to talk about such scenarios at all. To implement this scenario, we need a sufficient number of weapons. First and foremost, these are air-launched cruise missiles such as Storm Shadow, Scalp or American ATACAMS. It is also possible to use domestic Neptunes,” – Dmitry Snegirev
Regarding the forecast for the rest of the year from a military perspective, Dmitry Snegirev assures that there should be no illusions about counter-offensive actions. The main goal is to hold on to the positions we currently have.
“The Russians simultaneously intensified their attack along the entire length of the Ukrainian-Russian front. This is 1200 kilometres. The main task now is to keep the situation under control in order not to accept the so-called peace agreements of the Russian Federation, which in fact is a surrender. To stabilise the front line, and only then talk about counter-offensive operations,” – Dmitry Snegirev
According to military expert Snegiryov, the Defence Forces must first of all:
- Reduce the coefficient of fire damage
- The activity of the Russian Air Force at the time of strikes by FABs, CABs on our positions (and this requires F-16s or Gripen)
- The cannon rocket artillery is of the NATO model, not the Soviet one.
This war is a war of technology, and we can defeat the occupier with their superiority in manpower and equipment only through technology, Snegirev adds.
One call can change everything: what the US can do to end the war in 2024
Today, more than ever, Biden has the only trump card to go down in history in a positive way – to help Ukraine win. Republican Party representative Boris Pincus is convinced of this. Especially for Kommersant Ukrainsky, he outlines two scenarios to help Ukraine win this year. Pincus clarifies that he is not talking about sending US troops to Ukraine.
“One option is to help Ukraine in whatever it needs. To help Ukraine attack instead of defend. So that it can liberate its territory to the 1991 borders. Without any conditions or restrictions on the use of Western weapons.” – Boris Pincus
Scenario number two – Biden should meet with Xi Jinping one-on-one. Boris Pincus notes that US President Biden has not met with the Chinese leader at the state level. Usually, on the sidelines, at the G20. In particular, at the San Francisco summit, where Xi Jinping made a speech calling for dialogue with Biden. The two nuclear powers can sit down at the negotiating table and solve many of the world’s problems, Pincus adds.
So, if the two largest countries in the world, despite their differences, can manage to cope with emotions and compete in a civilised manner, Biden could ask Xi Jinping to make one important call. And here, Republican Boris Pincus’s opinion coincides with the words of Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who believes that one phone call from the Chinese leader to dictator Putin could stop Russia’s war against Ukraine.
