The war will end soon, but there is a prerequisite: details
27 June 17:26
ANALYSIS FROM 
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda said that he does not expect the war in Ukraine to end soon, as the conflict could last until at least 2028. He said this during the EU summit in Brussels.
“I would like the war to end before the start of the new EU multi-annual budget, but I see no reason for optimism at the moment. There is no light at the end of the tunnel,” the Lithuanian leader admitted.
In his opinion, the prolongation of the war is caused by the position of Russia itself, which does not demonstrate real readiness for peace, only imitating a dialogue. At the same time, Nausėda emphasized that a real ceasefire should be a key condition for any peace agreement.
So far, this is out of the question. Therefore, our reaction must be firm – the European Union must adopt the 18th package of sanctions against Russia,” he emphasized.
Allies’ words should be taken into account, but they should be analyzed in a broader context
Source
In any case, it is worth listening to. This is, after all, a statement made at the highest representative level, and by the leader of a NATO country that is a true ally of Ukraine and provides military and technical assistance,” the expert explains.
But, according to him, such assessments are also an indirect characterization of the state of affairs in the enemy’s camp, and there are grounds for cautious optimism. According to Snegirev, the very fact that after almost four years of full-scale war, Russia has not been able to achieve even its primary tactical goals is undeniable evidence of its failure.
The occupiers have not yet fulfilled the task of reaching the administrative borders of Luhansk and Donetsk regions. Not to mention Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the territories that Putin included in the Russian Federation by his decrees,” emphasizes Snegiryov.
This, in his opinion, means that the Kremlin has suffered a political, informational and military defeat, because even the first stage of the so-called “special military operation” has failed.
Ahead is the battle for Donbas: more difficult than anything that has happened before
However, Snegiryov warns that despite temporary setbacks, the enemy has not abandoned its intention to capture the entire Donetsk region. If the offensive continues, the Russians will have to face one of the most difficult challenges – urban battles in the densely populated agglomerations of Donbas.
The attack on the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration will be extremely bloody. It is a densely built-up area with large industrial facilities – Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, Kostiantynivka. This is an agglomeration where cities are merging into each other. It will take years, not months, to storm such cities,” the analyst warns.
For comparison: Bakhmut, which the occupiers stormed for 9 months, is much smaller. And even there, according to Snegiryov, Russia lost up to 100 thousand people killed and wounded. In addition to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the Pokrovsk agglomeration (Myrnohrad, Dobropillia), as well as Lyman, Siversk and other key settlements are on the occupiers’ way. And this is only part of the defense line.
These are not just settlements. These are large urban centers with well-organized engineering defense, dense buildings and a developed industrial zone. Their capture will require extraordinary efforts on the part of the Russian army,” the expert emphasizes.
Trump is not distancing himself. He is preparing “coercion to peace”
Dmitry Snegirev also emphasizes the influence of the United States. According to him, it is Washington’s position that could be decisive in the negotiations.
The United States exerts powerful diplomatic pressure on both Russia and Ukraine. Their task is to bring the parties to the negotiating table. And it is possible that the result could be territorial concessions from Ukraine,” he admits.
Such rhetoric, Snegirev notes, has already been voiced not only by representatives of the Baltic states, but also by the president of Poland and other European politicians. Despite the skepticism of some politicians about Donald Trump, the expert emphasizes that the US president has not abandoned the Ukrainian issue.
Statements that Trump is distancing himself are false. He is demonstrating his ability to resolve local conflicts. Iran, Yemen, Gaza – in all cases, he acts as an arbitrator, applying a policy of “peace enforcement.” And the Ukrainian issue is no exception,” Snegirev concludes .
Read also: War on the home stretch: 4 scenarios awaiting Ukraine
Europe is satisfied with the current state of affairs, but not Ukraine
While some European leaders are predicting a protracted war with Russia, other positions are emerging – more decisive and pragmatic. According to Taras Zahorodnyi, managing partner of the National Anti-Crisis Group, political scientist, it is Ukraine that can significantly influence the pace and format of the end of the war. But this requires decisive steps, particularly in the military and economic spheres.
In a conversation with journalists
Western support is important, but it does not guarantee a quick end to the war. The political analyst is convinced that European governments are interested in continuing the current format of the conflict, as it allows them to keep Russia in check without risking a direct clash.
In the United States and Europe, the situation generally suits many people. Ukrainians are dying, they are holding back Russia, and Moscow does not dare to attack the West. They are satisfied with everything – they think it will last,” Zahorodnyi said.
The analyst is convinced that talks about negotiations will not make sense until Russia begins to suffer a real, systemic blow to its territory, economy, and infrastructure. It is not only about the front, but also about the deep rear of the aggressor.
It all depends on whether Ukraine starts to systematically attack Russia. For example, the Baltic Sea ports must be destroyed. If Europeans do not do this, Ukraine must do it. We must put everyone in front of the fact,” the expert emphasizes.
Targets are Russia’s chemical and oil and gas industries
The political expert insists that the energy and chemical industries of the Russian Federation should be strategic targets for strikes. Especially given the fall in oil prices, which is weakening the Kremlin economically.
Destruction of their chemical industry and oil and gas infrastructure would be a fatal blow to Russia. Against the backdrop of falling oil prices, it is also an economic collapse. Then the conversation with the Russians will be not in three years, but in six months at most: “How are you going to escape from Ukrainian territory?” Zahorodniy emphasizes.
The political expert concludes that peace will not come by itself, it will have to be forced. And the main role here belongs to Ukraine – not only as a victim of aggression, but as a state that shapes the agenda of the war.
Those who want peace should prepare for strikes, not negotiations. This is the only way to make Russia talk,” summarizes Taras Zahorodnyi.
Thus, the statement of the Lithuanian president is not only a warning, but also a signal of the fatigue of Europe, which is beginning to prepare for a long war. At the same time, Ukraine must realize that even the strongest support is no substitute for its own initiative. If Kyiv wants to shorten the time to victory, it will have to act proactively – in the military, political, and diplomatic spheres. And most importantly, it will have to prepare scenarios in which Ukraine shapes the rules of the game, not just reacts to them.
Author – Daryna Glushchenko
Читайте нас у Telegram: головні новини коротко
