Volodymyr Ohryzko: “It is not profitable for China to attack Taiwan now”
23 May 2024 16:09
EXCLUSIVE
China’s military exercises near Taiwan do not necessarily mean that China is preparing to attack the island nation. There are currently no signs that such an attack will happen in the near future. This was stated by Ukrainian diplomat Volodymyr Ohryzko in an exclusive commentary to Kommersant Ukrainian 
.
“I would not dare to say for sure that China is preparing for a war with Taiwan. China doesn’t need additional sanctions for its already not-so-brilliant economy. So the consequences could be much worse than theoretically gaining control over this offensive,” he said,
– he said.
Military exercises are a regular practice of the states in the region, the expert said. And the sabre-rattling of weapons is part of the local system of relations, which consists of states that consider themselves rivals and sometimes enemies. But a real outbreak of hostilities could have serious consequences for China.
“They [military exercises] are constant. The US and South Korea conduct their exercises, China and North Korea conduct their manoeuvres. This is a system of mutual intimidation that has worked and is still working. But I don’t think there are any very obvious signs that China is going to attack Taiwan. They understand that they are immediately facing the US, Japan, the EU, the entire civilised world, eye to eye. And they immediately receive very painful sanctions,”
– ogryzko believes.
Instead, such a scenario would be beneficial for the United States, the diplomat says.
“It would be good for the Americans right now. Because they made the same mistake with China as they did with Russia – they allowed this tiger to rise to its feet. Now we need to look for opportunities to cut it down a little, or at least bite it. And if so, we need to look for a reason. And here the occasion is right in front of us. Everything is coming together,”
– the expert noted.
He also recalled that the United States and Taiwan have a security agreement, and therefore the United States should be expected to take active allied action.
“If I were the leader of China, I would think 1,500 times before giving such commands,” he said,
– said Volodymyr Ohryzko.
Today, China began two days of military exercises around Taiwan in response to the inauguration of the island nation’s new president, Lai Tsing-jeou. Beijing calls it a “punishment” for “separatist actions” and a warning against interference by “external forces”. Read more here:
China launches 'punitive' military exercises near Taiwan
