For the first time in 2025, deflation was recorded in Ukraine, – the State Statistics Service
8 August 2025 21:18
In July 2025, consumer prices in Ukraine decreased by 0.2% compared to June, the first case of deflation since the beginning of the year. On an annualized basis, inflation also slowed to 14.1%, according to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
Details of July deflation:
- Core inflation: 0.3% for the month, 11.7% year-on-year
- Price decline:
- Food and non-alcoholic beverages: -1.1% (y/y)
- Vegetables: -23.9% (yoy: 17.5%)
- Sugar: -2.8% (y/y)
- Price growth:
- Eggs: 82.4% yoy
- Alcohol and tobacco: 1.8% month-on-month, 19.2% year-on-year
- Transportation: 1.6% (fuel and lubricants: 4.1%)
- Clothing and footwear: -4.6% (clothing -5.2%, footwear -4.0%)
Inflation in 2025: dynamics and forecasts
- June 2025: 0.8% m/m, 14.3% y/y
- NBU forecast: inflation is expected to reach 9.7% by the end of the year, which is higher than the previous forecast of 8.7%
- Government forecast: December-to-December inflation at 9.5%
- Expectations for 2026-2028:
- Optimistic scenario: inflation will decline to 5.3% in 2028
- Pessimistic scenario: inflation will remain at 7.5% in 2028
When was the last time there was deflation?
The last case of deflation in Ukraine was recorded in August 2023, when prices fell by 1.4%. Summer deflation is a traditional phenomenon associated with the seasonal decline in the price of fruits and vegetables.
