For the first time in 2.5 years, Russia has not advanced in Ukraine over the course of a month: what the ISW analysis revealed
3 April 09:58
In March 2026, for the first time in two and a half years, the Russian occupation army failed to make any territorial gains on the front lines in Ukraine. This was reported by RTÉ, citing an AFP analysis based on data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), according to "Komersant Ukrainian"
According to these estimates, Ukrainian forces, on the other hand, regained control of 9 square kilometers of territory.
This is an important signal, as even at the beginning of 2026, the Russian army, although advancing more slowly, was still making progress. According to the same analysis, Russian troops advanced 319 square kilometers in January and only 123 square kilometers in February, which was already the lowest figure in nearly a year. March marked the next stage of this slowdown—leading to a complete absence of new territorial gains.
What exactly does “no territorial gains” mean?
This does not mean a cessation of fighting or the disappearance of Russian attacks, but rather the absence of confirmed expansion of the occupied territory at the end of the month. In other words, the fighting continued, but it did not yield any new, documented gains in territory for Russia.
For the front lines, this is a crucial distinction: the offensive may continue tactically, but it does not translate into strategic territorial success.
Why the Russian offensive is slowing down
The pace of the Russian offensive has been slowing since late 2025. Among the reasons cited are Ukrainian counterattacks, as well as a number of factors affecting the functioning of military infrastructure and communications. The report specifically mentions restrictions on the use of Starlink and the Kremlin’s attempts to control access to Telegram.
At the same time, the ISW itself has repeatedly noted in its assessments that the front is not on the verge of collapse on the Ukrainian side, and that Russian forces have been advancing much more slowly since the fall of 2025 than before.
Specifically, the ISW previously estimated that in 2024, Russia captured only 0.8% of Ukraine’s territory, and between October 2025 and the end of March 2026, its total advance amounted to 1,929.69 square kilometers—despite the massive resources Moscow poured into the offensive.
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Where Russia Lost Momentum the Most
According to an AFP analysis, on the southern section of the front between the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions, Russia even lost some of the positions it had previously captured. While it controlled over 400 square kilometers there at the end of January, by March that figure had dropped to 144 square kilometers. This is one of the most striking examples of a shift in dynamics on a specific section of the front.
At the same time, in the north of Donetsk Oblast, in the direction of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, Russian troops were still able to advance by approximately 50 square kilometers. However, these local changes did not result in an overall monthly gain of occupied territory. That is why the net balance for March turned out to be zero for Russia.
What the First Quarter of 2026 Shows
Overall, in the first quarter of 2026, Russia’s territorial gains, according to AFP estimates based on ISW data, were half as much as in the same period of 2025. This means that even if Russia maintains offensive pressure, the effectiveness of such pressure in territorial terms is declining.
It is noted that Russia currently controls slightly more than 19% of Ukraine’s territory.
Why this matters
The main significance of these figures is that they show a change in the pace of the war. Until recently, Russia was able to demonstrate a slow but steady advance. Now, the analysis records a month in which no such advance occurred at all.
This does not mean an automatic turning point across the entire front, but it indicates that the Russian offensive is increasingly reaching the limits of its capabilities.
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