Harvest 2025: USDA determines forecasts that will be adjusted by weather
14 May 2025 11:49
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has increased its forecast for the 2025/26 marketing year for Ukrainian corn production and decreased its forecast for wheat production. This was reported by the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
According to the USDA forecasts, in 2025/26 marketing year Ukraine’s wheat production volumes will decrease by 0.4 mln tonnes to 23.0 mln tonnes, while exports will increase by 0.5 mln tonnes to 16.5 mln tonnes.
As for corn, Ukraine is expected to increase production by 3.7 million tons to 30.5 million tons and exports by 2.0 million tons to 24.0 million tons.
What are the current prices for corn and wheat?
On the Ukrainian market, as of May 9, prices for the old corn crop declined due to a decrease in purchasing activity by traders. According to Spike Brokers, most buyers have already formed the necessary stocks, which led to a weakening of demand and, accordingly, to price correction. Another factor was that Ukrainian corn is too expensive on the world market, which makes it difficult for it to compete with products of other origins, such as American or Brazilian.
In the ports of Odesa, over the past week, old-crop corn fell by an average of $4-5 and was traded in the range of $236-238/t on DAP (Delivered at Place) terms. Prices for new crop corn also declined and traded at 200-202 $/t DAP.
Old-crop wheat is gradually losing its relevance, which puts pressure on prices. The most significant decline is observed in ports amid weak export activity. In contrast, processors are reducing prices more slowly, so producers are more willing to sell to local buyers.
Prices for wheat of the new harvest experienced a slight decline. Wheat 11.5% was traded at 210-212 $/t on DAP ports for delivery in July-August, feed wheat – 198-200 $/t DAP.
The future of the new harvest will be determined by the May weather
The lack of moisture in the soil is a concern for the further development of all crops, both grains and oilseeds. This is stated in the forecast from UkrAgroConsult.
It is noted that in February-April, no more than 80% of the normal precipitation fell throughout Ukraine, and in some regions only about half of the normal.
This precipitation was enough to moisten the topsoil, which is important for the initial development of plants. However, given the previous dry autumn and snowy winter, the deeper layers of soil (one meter layer) remain dry. This will be critical for the plants in the later stages of their development.
The pessimistic scenario of the consulting agency’s experts is based on the option of no precipitation in May. In this case, early grain crops (wheat, barley) could potentially lose about 10% of their yields.
The delayed sowing due to the April frost has resulted in an extremely narrow window for sowing late crops: corn, soybeans, and sunflower need to be sown simultaneously and very quickly due to the sharp rise in heat and moisture deficit. There is a risk that under the “I have time to sow one thing” type of conditions, the farmer will choose between corn and oilseeds in favor of oilseeds.
