Vuhledar: a symbol of challenges and strategic mistakes of Ukraine and its Western partners
4 October 2024 14:35
ANALYSIS
The seizure of Vuhledar in Donetsk region by Russian troops reflects the difficult situation Ukraine is facing at the current stage of the war. According to the Associated Press, this happened against the backdrop of the US refusal to allow Ukraine to strike strategic targets in Russia, which complicates Ukraine’s task of weakening Moscow’s military capabilities. Is it worth looking for the culprits today and how to proceed?
Russia’s superiority in the air allows it to effectively use powerful cruise bombs, against which Ukraine has no adequate defences. Thus, in August, it was loudly announced that Ukraine would receive F-16s, but even then, experts unanimously said that this was not enough. Western aid was delayed, and Europe is said to lack the capacity to produce enough ammunition for Ukraine.
Vuhledar was a fortified outpost between Ukraine’s eastern and southern fronts. According to the Khortytsia Operational and Strategic Grouping, Ukrainian troops were forced to withdraw from Vuhledar due to the threat of encirclement.
“The high command decided to manoeuvre to save personnel and equipment in order to prepare for further actions,” the military said.
Biden is convinced of the correctness of his decisions
When asked whether the US is aware of the consequences of its actions, American political strategists shrug their shoulders. Jason J. Smart in an exclusive commentary
“Indeed, it was Biden’s decision to prohibit Ukraine from striking deep into Russian territory. And he still thinks it’s the right decision,” said Jason J. Smart.
Failure to provide Ukraine with Western weapons, especially long-range weapons, all together led to the downfall of Vuhledar, says Smart in an exclusive interview
“The world’s first economy is at stake, and the ruling party does not want to lose the election because of Ukraine, so there are fears and unwillingness to help Ukraine,” says Ivan Stupak.
However, it is worth looking into Ukraine’s past and our mistakes before the war, the expert notes.
“We can’t put the responsibility entirely on the US. We had a lot of weapons after the collapse of the USSR, which we sold. We lost a large number of weapons 5 years before the war in explosions at large warehouses,” said Ivan Stupak.
Why did Vuhledar fall?
The Russians have three scenarios for breaking down large Ukrainian cities, says Ivan Stupak.
- “The first is the Russian infantry, which is like shit. These are large meaty assaults that later grew into dozens of groups of 3-4 people.
“Of course, they lack resources, and the Russians slip through the Ukrainian defence in small groups,” explained Ivan Stupak.
- “The second is Russian aviation, which cuts through the defence like a can opener; blunt bombs that do the job due to their mass
- The third scenario is the Ukrainian flanks, which the Russians have learnt to push through. The enemy understands that they cannot take cities head-on, as they did with Bakhmut. They are squeezing out weak units from the left and right and entering Ukrainian cities,” says Ivan Stupak.
How do the military react to the loss of Vuhledar?
“Vuhledar has fallen. Vuhledar was doomed, it was impossible to save it. But the people could have been saved. But the order to leave was never given. Everyone in and around the town understood that the countdown was going on for days, and then for hours, but the order to withdraw never came,” writes Mykola Voroshnov, 72nd Brigade.
“In the morning, shed tanks stormed the positions of the guys in the Vuhledar direction, and we stayed in the field. The enemy continues to be active on the flanks of the direction,” the officer wrote in Telegram.
“It is logical to conclude that after Vuhledar, the new target for the Russians in this direction is Bohoyavlenka and the village of Dalne near Kurakhove. The creation of ticks is not just red borders on the map, it is an expansion of the area of artillery and drones, deterioration of our logistics, limited ability of our artillery and drones to work, the ability of enemy subversive reconnaissance groups to infiltrate our rear, etc. The movement of f*ckers in Donbas is unrealistically fast compared to 2023,” says Govorayut Sniper in Telegram.
“It took 2 years and 1 month for the Katsaps to take the city. Hundreds of thousands of shells and thousands of bombs, hundreds of pieces of burnt equipment, thousands of dead. This is the price the Katsap paid for the city that was destroyed to the ground. The state should kiss the hands of the garrison of Vuhledar for the time gained and incredible heroism,” wrote Noem’s intelligence group on Telegram.
We would like to add that according to the Khortytsia operational and strategic group of troops, the units of Ukrainian defenders defending Vuhledar were allowed to leave the city to save their personnel and equipment. They noted that Russia has not given up its attempts to capture Vuhledar and there is a threat of encirclement.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Vuhledar a right step and reiterated that Ukraine needs more help from the West to deter Russia’s offensive.
Author: Anastasia Fedor
